NBA games

ATL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
102–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL29312220102
BOS26293222109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BOS
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 37 29 6 6
CJ McCollum S 34 21 5 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 38 20 4 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 38 8 9 2
Zaccharie Risacher 14 6 2 0
Dyson Daniels S 32 6 6 5
Gabe Vincent 12 3 0 1
Mouhamed Gueye 10 3 1 0
Corey Kispert 7 3 0 0
Jonathan Kuminga 18 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 35 36 7 4
Jayson Tatum S 37 26 12 5
Luka Garza 15 11 4 2
Sam Hauser S 29 10 3 2
Derrick White S 34 10 4 5
Jordan Walsh 27 5 3 1
Neemias Queta S 28 5 11 5
Baylor Scheierman S 28 3 6 2
Hugo Gonzalez 7 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes 8-foot two point shot (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
13%
2 Derrick White BOS
13%
3 CJ McCollum ATL
12%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
7 Sam Hauser BOS
10%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
23%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.0 8.6 8.1
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 22.2 3.6 4.0
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 20.3 8.7 3.9
4 CJ McCollum ATL 19.6 3.7 4.9
5 Derrick White BOS 18.7 4.7 4.2
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.3 7.6 4.2
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.8 3.7 3.9
8 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 12.2 5.5 2.5
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.6 6.1 2.8
10 Neemias Queta BOS 9.7 8.1 1.6
11 Luka Garza BOS 8.6 3.3 1.1
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.2 4.6 1.1
13 Baylor Scheierman BOS 8.1 5.4 2.0
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.2 3.8 1.2
15 Corey Kispert ATL 6.0 2.1 1.2
16 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.3 1.2 1.0
17 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.3 2.9 0.7
18 Buddy Hield ATL 4.0 1.6 1.1
19 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.7 2.6 0.7
20 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.3 1.0 0.5
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 1.9 0.4
22 Charles Bassey BOS 2.4 4.6 0.3
23 Christian Koloko ATL 2.4 2.3 0.4
24 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.2 0.7 0.4
25 Caleb Houstan ATL 1.7 0.7 0.3
26 Max Shulga BOS 1.3 0.7 0.4
27 Amari Williams BOS 1.2 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.