NBA games

LAC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC21293628114
IND42182825113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home IND
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 35 30 0 5
Kawhi Leonard S 35 28 8 4
Bennedict Mathurin 29 17 7 1
Brook Lopez S 33 16 9 4
John Collins S 20 5 6 1
Jordan Miller 13 5 1 1
Isaiah Jackson 14 4 4 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 26 4 3 3
Nicolas Batum 14 3 5 0
Kris Dunn 21 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith S 35 26 7 2
Obi Toppin 23 20 8 4
Micah Potter 16 13 7 0
Andrew Nembhard S 32 13 1 10
Kobe Brown 27 11 4 3
Pascal Siakam S 33 11 6 3
Quenton Jackson 13 7 2 3
Jarace Walker S 4 5 1 1
Jay Huff S 20 3 3 4
Ben Sheppard 19 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 25-foot three pointer (John Collins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
4 Jarace Walker IND
10%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
6 Darius Garland LAC
8%
7 John Collins LAC
7%
8 Jay Huff IND
7%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
10 Brook Lopez LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
36%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 30.4 6.1 4.2
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 5.3 3.3
3 Darius Garland LAC 23.1 3.5 8.0
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 21.7 6.1 3.0
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 17.6 3.3 8.3
6 Jarace Walker IND 16.5 6.0 3.6
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.6 3.0 1.8
8 John Collins LAC 12.7 6.3 1.9
9 Jordan Miller LAC 12.1 3.7 2.9
10 Jay Huff IND 11.1 4.1 1.4
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.9 4.9 2.0
12 Brook Lopez LAC 10.4 4.6 1.9
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.8 2.9 5.7
14 Obi Toppin IND 8.5 3.2 1.9
15 Isaiah Jackson LAC 8.5 6.2 1.7
16 Taelon Peter IND 8.3 2.4 1.6
17 Kris Dunn LAC 7.7 3.7 3.4
18 Ben Sheppard IND 7.6 2.6 1.5
19 Kobe Brown IND 7.5 3.3 1.5
20 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.4 2.2 1.8
21 Micah Potter IND 6.7 3.5 1.2
22 Quenton Jackson IND 6.5 2.2 3.1
23 Kam Jones IND 5.7 1.7 3.3
24 Jalen Slawson IND 5.6 3.7 1.7
25 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.6 1.9 1.8
26 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.9 2.3 1.0
27 Ethan Thompson IND 4.5 1.3 0.9
28 Sean Pedulla LAC 4.2 1.2 1.0
29 Cam Christie LAC 3.4 2.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.