NBA games

SAC @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
117–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC30293127117
ORL39262828121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home ORL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 33 6 11
Daeqwon Plowden 35 23 3 0
Precious Achiuwa S 34 14 9 2
Devin Carter S 25 14 3 4
Malik Monk S 32 13 2 5
Maxime Raynaud S 39 10 7 3
Doug McDermott 12 6 0 2
Dylan Cardwell 16 2 5 2
DaQuan Jeffries 7 2 0 0
Killian Hayes 2 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 30 9 7
Desmond Bane S 35 23 0 6
Tristan da Silva S 32 18 2 2
Jamal Cain 22 11 5 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 10 11 0
Jalen Suggs S 34 8 4 4
Jevon Carter 14 7 0 0
Goga Bitadze 13 6 2 0
Jase Richardson 5 5 1 0
Jett Howard 8 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Carter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Devin Carter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Precious Achiuwa SAC
10%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
3 Maxime Raynaud SAC
10%
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
5 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
6 Desmond Bane ORL
8%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
8 Paolo Banchero ORL
7%
9 Nique Clifford SAC
6%
10 Malik Monk SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
23%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.1 7.0 6.3
2 Desmond Bane ORL 21.9 4.5 5.4
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.6 3.5 5.1
4 Maxime Raynaud SAC 19.6 8.3 2.2
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.6 4.1 5.5
6 Precious Achiuwa SAC 15.8 10.0 1.6
7 Tristan da Silva ORL 14.7 4.6 2.6
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.6 6.7 2.6
9 Nique Clifford SAC 13.4 5.5 4.0
10 Malik Monk SAC 13.0 2.5 4.5
11 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 12.1 3.2 1.6
12 Devin Carter SAC 11.3 3.7 3.0
13 Jevon Carter ORL 8.9 2.8 2.0
14 Jett Howard ORL 7.7 2.7 1.3
15 Jamal Cain ORL 7.1 2.8 1.2
16 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.9 8.8 1.8
17 Killian Hayes SAC 6.3 2.8 3.1
18 Doug McDermott SAC 6.2 1.9 1.2
19 Moritz Wagner ORL 5.8 3.7 1.0
20 Alex Morales ORL 5.2 2.9 2.0
21 Noah Penda ORL 4.7 2.4 1.5
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.6 3.6 1.8
23 Patrick Baldwin Jr. SAC 4.2 2.8 0.9
24 Jase Richardson ORL 3.4 1.2 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.