NBA games

NO @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
108129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO33233022108
DET31342737129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home DET
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 31 21 6 2
Saddiq Bey S 31 17 1 3
Jeremiah Fears 27 13 2 6
Dejounte Murray S 29 12 7 4
Derik Queen 21 11 11 2
Herbert Jones S 27 11 0 4
Jordan Hawkins 22 9 3 0
Karlo Matkovic 15 8 3 1
DeAndre Jordan S 17 4 5 3
Yves Missi 16 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 31 30 10 7
Kevin Huerter S 34 22 3 2
Daniss Jenkins S 33 19 2 9
Tobias Harris S 26 12 9 7
Ausar Thompson S 29 11 4 0
Javonte Green 20 8 1 1
Paul Reed 14 8 3 1
Marcus Sasser 16 7 2 1
Chaz Lanier 10 6 1 1
Bobi Klintman 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
20%
2 Jalen Duren DET
13%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
6 Herbert Jones NO
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Daniss Jenkins DET
8%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
10 DeAndre Jordan NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
9%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Duren DET 23.1 10.4 2.1
2 Zion Williamson NO 20.9 6.1 3.1
3 Dejounte Murray NO 19.8 5.3 6.9
4 Saddiq Bey NO 17.5 4.8 2.8
5 Daniss Jenkins DET 14.6 3.5 6.1
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.6 5.2 3.1
7 Duncan Robinson DET 11.6 3.4 2.5
8 Jeremiah Fears NO 11.5 2.8 3.1
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.1 3.2 2.7
10 Ausar Thompson DET 10.5 5.9 3.3
11 Kevin Huerter DET 8.1 3.1 2.4
12 Jordan Poole NO 7.8 2.7 2.0
13 Paul Reed DET 7.7 4.0 1.0
14 Ronald Holland II DET 7.6 3.1 1.1
15 Derik Queen NO 7.5 4.2 2.5
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 7.4 4.5 0.9
17 Javonte Green DET 6.3 2.4 1.0
18 Yves Missi NO 6.2 6.6 1.5
19 Marcus Sasser DET 4.8 1.4 1.7
20 Kevon Looney NO 4.0 5.7 1.1
21 DeAndre Jordan NO 3.4 5.0 0.5
22 Tolu Smith DET 3.0 3.2 0.5
23 Isaac Jones DET 2.1 1.0 0.3
24 Bobi Klintman DET 2.0 1.1 0.5
25 Jordan Hawkins NO 1.7 0.7 0.3
26 Chaz Lanier DET 1.6 0.6 0.3
27 Micah Peavy NO 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.