NBA games

TOR @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
94–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2223272294
LAC36233228119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home LAC
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 36 18 6 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 15 13 7 0
RJ Barrett S 32 12 6 4
Collin Murray-Boyles 24 10 5 0
Jakob Poeltl S 22 10 6 1
Scottie Barnes S 31 9 8 12
Jamal Shead S 31 8 0 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 15 5 1 0
Jonathan Mogbo 4 4 1 1
Jamison Battle 11 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 30 27 6 2
Darius Garland S 30 24 4 6
Bennedict Mathurin 27 23 4 6
Brook Lopez S 25 14 5 0
Isaiah Jackson 23 12 6 3
Nicolas Batum 15 9 2 1
Kobe Sanders 7 6 0 0
Cam Christie 4 2 4 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 28 2 7 0
John Collins S 22 0 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes driving layup (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
5 John Collins LAC
9%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
7 Jamal Shead TOR
7%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
9 Brook Lopez LAC
7%
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
31%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 29.1 6.0 3.9
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.0 5.2 3.2
3 Darius Garland LAC 22.4 2.9 6.8
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.7 4.8 3.6
5 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 19.1 5.8 2.2
6 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.1 6.3 5.5
7 John Collins LAC 13.5 6.4 1.7
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.9 8.3 2.2
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.0 4.8 1.9
10 Brook Lopez LAC 9.6 4.0 1.7
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 9.6 4.2 2.0
12 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.9 4.6 1.8
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.7 2.8 1.5
14 Isaiah Jackson LAC 8.6 6.3 1.4
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.7 2.4 1.8
16 Kris Dunn LAC 7.4 3.3 3.2
17 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.9 1.9 1.7
18 Jamal Shead TOR 5.9 2.0 4.9
19 Gradey Dick TOR 5.3 1.8 1.1
20 Sean Pedulla LAC 4.6 1.1 0.9
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.2 1.8 0.8
22 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 1.9 0.7
23 Cam Christie LAC 2.9 1.5 0.8
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.8 1.9 0.7
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.6 2.6 0.7
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.