NBA games

MIL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
99–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2722321899
POR42293326130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home POR
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 31 36 4 4
Ousmane Dieng S 33 16 4 4
Taurean Prince 29 13 6 2
Jericho Sims S 29 12 6 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 21 8 3 1
Pete Nance S 31 6 4 2
AJ Green S 34 5 4 5
Cormac Ryan 4 2 0 0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 8 1 3 2
Gary Trent Jr. 19 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson 24 23 3 4
Deni Avdija S 25 18 4 7
Jerami Grant S 24 18 2 0
Matisse Thybulle 23 14 8 0
Donovan Clingan S 25 14 15 3
Jrue Holiday S 26 13 5 8
Toumani Camara S 24 10 3 1
Blake Wesley 9 7 1 1
Robert Williams III 13 6 6 0
Kris Murray 21 5 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Clingan POR
11%
2 Deni Avdija POR
11%
3 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
6 Toumani Camara POR
8%
7 Sidy Cissoko POR
8%
8 Jericho Sims MIL
8%
9 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
10 Ousmane Dieng MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
30%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 22.5 6.1 7.3
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.1 4.4 3.7
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.2 4.7 6.4
4 Jerami Grant POR 18.2 3.9 2.6
5 Donovan Clingan POR 16.9 11.2 2.8
6 Scoot Henderson POR 15.7 3.5 3.8
7 Jrue Holiday POR 14.7 4.3 6.2
8 Toumani Camara POR 14.3 4.4 2.8
9 Caleb Love POR 12.6 2.7 3.6
10 Ousmane Dieng MIL 11.2 3.9 3.2
11 Robert Williams III POR 9.3 9.4 1.1
12 Myles Turner MIL 9.0 3.6 1.3
13 AJ Green MIL 6.4 2.4 1.3
14 Jericho Sims MIL 6.2 5.2 1.5
15 Taurean Prince MIL 6.1 2.5 1.0
16 Blake Wesley POR 5.8 1.6 2.1
17 Kris Murray POR 5.7 2.8 1.6
18 Pete Nance MIL 5.6 3.2 1.2
19 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.5 1.4 0.6
20 Vit Krejci POR 5.3 2.8 1.5
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.3 2.0 1.1
22 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.8 2.0 1.5
23 Cormac Ryan MIL 3.9 1.0 0.4
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.9 0.9
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.5 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.