NBA games

BKN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
106–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN30282820106
GS25252732109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home GS
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ziaire Williams S 24 19 1 2
Jalen Wilson 23 15 3 2
Ben Saraf S 32 14 4 7
Malachi Smith 18 12 3 1
Chaney Johnson 19 11 1 3
Drake Powell S 34 10 2 0
Nic Claxton S 20 8 4 2
Josh Minott 23 8 2 3
Tyson Etienne 17 5 1 3
Terance Mann S 23 4 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gui Santos S 35 31 3 1
Brandin Podziemski S 35 22 6 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 27 17 5 2
De'Anthony Melton S 28 14 9 3
Gary Payton II 24 10 7 2
Draymond Green S 34 7 5 3
Pat Spencer 15 4 3 3
Will Richard 20 3 2 0
Omer Yurtseven 7 1 1 0
LJ Cryer 15 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 17-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Anthony Melton GS
11%
2 Brandin Podziemski GS
11%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
4 Kristaps Porzingis GS
9%
5 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
6 Moses Moody GS
8%
7 Draymond Green GS
7%
8 Quinten Post GS
7%
9 Terance Mann BKN
7%
10 Jalen Wilson BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
42%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Moses Moody GS 18.6 3.8 3.1
2 Gui Santos GS 18.0 5.7 5.0
3 Brandin Podziemski GS 17.4 5.5 4.7
4 De'Anthony Melton GS 15.4 4.4 3.2
5 Kristaps Porzingis GS 15.3 4.2 2.4
6 Gary Payton II GS 13.1 5.6 2.4
7 Ziaire Williams BKN 13.0 2.8 2.0
8 Draymond Green GS 11.4 4.8 6.1
9 Ben Saraf BKN 10.4 2.7 4.2
10 Pat Spencer GS 9.9 2.6 3.2
11 Josh Minott BKN 9.4 3.0 1.3
12 Will Richard GS 9.1 3.0 1.7
13 Quinten Post GS 8.7 4.7 1.5
14 Nic Claxton BKN 8.6 6.5 2.1
15 LJ Cryer GS 7.9 2.1 1.0
16 Chaney Johnson BKN 7.5 4.1 2.1
17 Tyson Etienne BKN 7.4 1.3 1.5
18 Malachi Smith BKN 6.9 2.5 2.7
19 Terance Mann BKN 6.5 2.8 2.1
20 Drake Powell BKN 6.4 2.0 1.5
21 Ochai Agbaji BKN 6.2 2.2 0.9
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.9 2.1 0.9
23 E.J. Liddell BKN 4.3 2.6 1.2
24 Omer Yurtseven GS 2.9 2.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.