NBA games

DAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
135–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL33264135135
DEN34344331142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home DEN
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 36 26 8 7
Naji Marshall S 30 22 4 3
P.J. Washington S 31 19 15 1
Brandon Williams 19 11 2 6
Khris Middleton 18 11 3 5
Max Christie S 32 9 1 2
Tyler Smith 8 8 1 0
Klay Thompson 11 8 0 0
Dwight Powell S 16 7 4 0
Marvin Bagley III 17 7 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 41 53 6 4
Nikola Jokic S 38 23 21 19
Peyton Watson 23 21 4 3
Cameron Johnson S 29 12 1 3
Christian Braun S 25 11 3 4
Julian Strawther 16 8 5 0
Bruce Brown 20 6 2 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 4 1 2
Spencer Jones S 20 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
17%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
15%
3 Cameron Johnson DEN
13%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
12%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
6 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
7 Christian Braun DEN
11%
8 Max Christie DAL
10%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
0%
10 Dwight Powell DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.7 13.0 10.7
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.4 4.5 6.6
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.3 7.7 6.9
4 Peyton Watson DEN 19.9 5.2 3.0
5 Naji Marshall DAL 18.7 4.2 4.9
6 Christian Braun DEN 15.9 5.5 2.9
7 Cameron Johnson DEN 15.8 4.0 2.6
8 P.J. Washington DAL 14.5 6.7 1.9
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.0 3.5 2.1
10 Brandon Williams DAL 11.7 3.6 2.9
11 Klay Thompson DAL 11.3 1.9 1.7
12 Max Christie DAL 10.8 2.8 1.7
13 Khris Middleton DAL 9.1 2.9 1.7
14 Bruce Brown DEN 9.1 3.3 1.9
15 Marvin Bagley III DAL 8.5 6.0 1.5
16 Spencer Jones DEN 7.1 4.0 1.1
17 Julian Strawther DEN 6.6 2.2 0.9
18 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.6 2.3 5.0
19 John Poulakidas DAL 5.1 2.0 0.8
20 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 4.5 4.0 0.6
21 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.5 1.8 0.7
22 Curtis Jones DEN 4.2 1.6 0.9
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.5 0.8
24 Dwight Powell DAL 3.6 3.2 0.7
25 AJ Johnson DAL 3.5 1.3 0.9
26 Tyus Jones DEN 3.4 1.5 1.2
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.0 2.0 0.7
28 Tyler Smith DAL 2.7 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.