NBA games

HOU @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
108–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU1924252713108
MIN2321262515110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIN
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 43 30 3 8
Alperen Sengun S 43 30 6 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 48 16 12 1
Amen Thompson S 45 11 9 10
Reed Sheppard S 28 10 8 3
Jae'Sean Tate 8 5 1 0
Aaron Holiday 12 3 2 1
Tari Eason 21 3 8 0
Clint Capela 10 0 4 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 37 25 2 0
Julius Randle S 42 24 6 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 36 17 3 2
Naz Reid 31 14 13 1
Rudy Gobert S 28 14 14 1
Bones Hyland 30 8 0 8
Mike Conley S 29 5 5 6
Kyle Anderson 30 3 5 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
3 Julius Randle MIN
13%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
6 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Reed Sheppard HOU
8%
10 Bones Hyland MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
34%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 24.6 6.0 4.5
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.7 9.1 5.8
3 Amen Thompson HOU 22.8 8.6 5.0
4 Julius Randle MIN 20.3 6.2 4.1
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.0 6.1 2.4
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 15.5 4.0 4.7
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.7 3.5 2.8
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.1 10.4 1.8
9 Naz Reid MIN 11.7 5.2 1.7
10 Bones Hyland MIN 11.4 1.8 2.4
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.7 3.7 2.7
12 Tari Eason HOU 7.3 5.9 1.4
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.2 1.4 1.3
14 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.1 3.0 1.6
15 Clint Capela HOU 5.0 5.0 1.0
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.9 3.2 2.4
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.4 1.1 0.7
18 Josh Okogie HOU 3.4 1.8 0.8
19 Julian Phillips MIN 3.3 1.0 0.6
20 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.3 1.0 0.8
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.2 1.5 0.6
22 Jeff Green HOU 2.7 1.0 0.4
23 Mike Conley MIN 2.4 1.3 1.6
24 Joan Beringer MIN 2.4 1.8 0.5
25 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.1 1.2 0.4
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.4 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.