NBA games

SA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
123–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA38194125123
MEM1925203498

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MEM
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 27 19 15 3
Devin Vassell S 26 19 7 4
Stephon Castle S 26 15 3 9
Keldon Johnson 22 15 7 3
Julian Champagnie S 26 13 8 2
Harrison Barnes 22 11 2 2
Dylan Harper S 23 10 5 6
Kelly Olynyk 9 9 1 3
Carter Bryant 15 5 1 0
Lindy Waters III 9 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 30 20 7 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 25 17 5 0
DeJon Jarreau 15 15 2 1
Cedric Coward S 27 12 1 4
Walter Clayton Jr. 22 10 2 6
Javon Small S 30 8 3 5
Taj Gibson 10 7 1 0
Tyler Burton 24 6 2 1
Taylor Hendricks S 28 2 8 0
Cam Spencer 30 1 2 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
15%
2 GG Jackson MEM
12%
3 Stephon Castle SA
12%
4 Ty Jerome MEM
10%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
8%
8 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Javon Small MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
25%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.8 11.8 3.8
2 Stephon Castle SA 20.3 6.0 8.9
3 Ty Jerome MEM 19.6 3.4 6.0
4 GG Jackson MEM 18.3 5.7 2.0
5 Dylan Harper SA 15.6 4.0 4.3
6 Javon Small MEM 13.1 4.2 4.2
7 Devin Vassell SA 12.8 3.5 2.9
8 Keldon Johnson SA 12.7 4.5 1.6
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 12.6 4.0 1.7
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.9 2.7 1.6
11 Cedric Coward MEM 11.9 5.2 2.2
12 Taylor Hendricks MEM 11.5 4.3 1.7
13 Julian Champagnie SA 11.0 5.2 1.7
14 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.4 2.4 6.0
15 Cam Spencer MEM 9.7 2.5 4.3
16 Harrison Barnes SA 8.7 2.9 1.7
17 Tyler Burton MEM 8.3 3.9 1.2
18 DeJon Jarreau MEM 7.7 4.6 3.9
19 Carter Bryant SA 6.6 3.8 1.2
20 Lindy Waters III SA 4.0 1.4 1.0
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.6 1.9 0.9
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.5 1.4 1.5
23 Taj Gibson MEM 3.5 2.2 0.6
24 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.7 1.9 0.6
25 Mason Plumlee SA 2.4 2.9 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.