NBA games

MIA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
120–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA28352037120
CLE19273720103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CLE
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 34 19 4 2
Tyler Herro S 30 18 2 4
Bam Adebayo S 33 17 10 7
Pelle Larsson 34 14 5 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 14 2 5
Kel'el Ware 20 13 11 4
Andrew Wiggins S 24 12 3 2
Davion Mitchell S 32 11 2 3
Kasparas Jakucionis 14 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 28 6 4
James Harden S 43 18 9 7
Sam Merrill S 29 18 2 4
Keon Ellis S 37 17 2 1
Evan Mobley S 31 8 5 4
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 18 6 4 0
Dennis Schroder 28 4 6 6
Thomas Bryant 16 4 5 0
Tyrese Proctor 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Davion Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Davion Mitchell makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
16%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
5 Pelle Larsson MIA
9%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
7 Sam Merrill CLE
9%
8 James Harden CLE
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
22%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 26.7 9.3 3.6
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.7 4.8 5.7
3 James Harden CLE 24.2 4.9 7.8
4 Tyler Herro MIA 22.7 5.6 4.8
5 Evan Mobley CLE 22.5 10.6 3.3
6 Norman Powell MIA 15.8 3.5 2.6
7 Pelle Larsson MIA 15.4 3.4 3.5
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.2 5.9 2.5
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.0 4.1 5.7
10 Sam Merrill CLE 13.0 3.6 2.7
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.6 3.0 5.0
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.9 8.1 1.2
13 Keon Ellis CLE 9.8 3.5 1.5
14 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 7.9 3.2 2.4
15 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.7 4.0 0.8
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.5 2.2 1.2
17 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.9 2.4 3.4
18 Dean Wade CLE 6.6 3.8 1.6
19 Dru Smith MIA 4.8 2.2 2.0
20 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.5 1.9 0.7
21 Myron Gardner MIA 4.4 2.9 1.0
22 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.4 0.7 1.4
23 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.1 1.7 0.6
24 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.1 1.9 0.6
25 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.5 1.8 0.5
26 Riley Minix CLE 2.4 1.1 0.9
27 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.3 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.