NBA games

OKC @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
109–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31223026109
BOS20293931119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home BOS
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 33 2 8
Luguentz Dort S 22 14 5 0
Chet Holmgren S 26 10 5 0
Alex Caruso 21 9 4 2
Ajay Mitchell 25 8 3 2
Jalen Williams S 24 7 3 3
Cason Wallace 24 7 4 0
Jared McCain 13 6 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 6 5 2
Isaiah Joe 12 5 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 39 31 8 8
Jayson Tatum S 35 19 12 7
Payton Pritchard 33 14 2 1
Neemias Queta S 30 13 5 2
Derrick White S 33 12 2 6
Baylor Scheierman 20 11 5 1
Sam Hauser S 29 9 5 0
Luka Garza 12 7 2 0
Hugo Gonzalez 9 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 28-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
3 Derrick White BOS
10%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC
9%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
9 Jaylen Brown BOS
8%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.9 4.8 7.2
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.7 6.7 6.2
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 19.9 8.7 3.7
4 Jalen Williams OKC 18.9 4.2 5.4
5 Derrick White BOS 18.5 4.6 4.5
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.3 9.7 1.8
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 15.3 3.7 3.5
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.0 3.8 4.7
9 Jaylin Williams OKC 10.6 6.6 2.5
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.5 3.0 1.4
11 Jared McCain OKC 10.0 2.1 1.3
12 Neemias Queta BOS 9.2 8.0 1.5
13 Luka Garza BOS 8.8 3.5 1.2
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 8.1 5.5 2.4
15 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 7.8 8.7 3.9
16 Cason Wallace OKC 7.5 2.9 2.9
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.1 3.0 1.3
18 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.0 3.5 1.1
19 Sam Hauser BOS 6.3 4.0 1.3
20 Alex Caruso OKC 6.1 3.2 1.5
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 2.1 0.9
22 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.1 3.1 0.8
23 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.0 1.5 0.7
24 Branden Carlson OKC 3.6 2.7 0.6
25 Charles Bassey BOS 3.2 5.0 0.5
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.5 2.0 0.3
27 Max Shulga BOS 2.1 1.1 0.6
28 Amari Williams BOS 1.2 1.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.