NBA games

CHI @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
137–157
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI26263253137
PHI38335135157

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home PHI
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 33 23 9 12
Matas Buzelis S 30 18 8 2
Collin Sexton 19 16 1 4
Tre Jones S 28 15 4 7
Leonard Miller 21 15 7 2
Isaac Okoro 23 13 2 1
Rob Dillingham 23 12 2 1
Guerschon Yabusele 22 11 4 0
Patrick Williams 20 10 3 1
Nick Richards S 9 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 28 35 6 7
Paul George S 26 28 6 4
VJ Edgecombe S 30 22 6 6
Cameron Payne 24 15 4 3
Quentin Grimes S 31 13 6 5
Justin Edwards 14 12 0 1
Dominick Barlow S 26 9 5 5
Dalen Terry 6 7 0 2
Trendon Watford 15 4 2 1
Adem Bona 15 4 8 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
VJ Edgecombe · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"VJ Edgecombe makes running layup (Paul George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
2 Tre Jones CHI
9%
3 Quentin Grimes PHI
9%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
5 Paul George PHI
8%
6 Adem Bona PHI
7%
7 Joel Embiid PHI
7%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
9 Nick Richards CHI
6%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 32.2 8.7 5.9
2 Quentin Grimes PHI 24.1 4.8 4.2
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 22.3 6.4 4.7
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 21.3 6.6 2.3
5 Josh Giddey CHI 20.0 9.0 10.1
6 Collin Sexton CHI 18.3 2.8 3.2
7 Tre Jones CHI 18.2 3.8 5.1
8 Paul George PHI 17.3 4.6 4.6
9 Justin Edwards PHI 13.1 3.2 3.1
10 Jalen Smith CHI 12.3 6.3 1.5
11 Leonard Miller CHI 11.8 6.1 1.4
12 Rob Dillingham CHI 11.4 3.2 3.5
13 Cameron Payne PHI 11.2 3.0 4.1
14 Nick Richards CHI 11.1 8.3 1.2
15 Trendon Watford PHI 10.1 4.6 3.0
16 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 9.4 5.0 1.7
17 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.4 2.5 1.7
18 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.9 5.1 1.9
19 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 8.8 3.2 1.7
20 Jabari Walker PHI 8.1 3.5 1.2
21 Adem Bona PHI 8.1 6.6 1.3
22 Andre Drummond PHI 7.4 7.6 2.3
23 Patrick Williams CHI 7.2 2.7 1.8
24 Dalen Terry PHI 5.4 2.2 1.8
25 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.0 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.