NBA games

LAL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
137–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL45303032137
IND28312645130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home IND
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 43 6 7
Austin Reaves S 38 25 1 8
LeBron James S 34 23 9 9
Jaxson Hayes S 36 21 10 1
Luke Kennard 28 8 2 2
Jake LaRavia S 29 6 5 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 12 5 1 0
Bronny James 13 4 1 1
Maxi Kleber 11 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 30 20 8 1
Jay Huff S 32 18 6 1
T.J. McConnell 14 17 2 3
Jarace Walker S 30 15 6 4
Obi Toppin 20 15 3 2
Andrew Nembhard S 34 14 2 19
Aaron Nesmith S 32 14 3 1
Ben Sheppard 18 13 2 2
Micah Potter 16 4 2 0
Kobe Brown 8 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaxson Hayes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jaxson Hayes makes 1-foot dunk (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
15%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
5 Jarace Walker IND
10%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
8 Quenton Jackson IND
8%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
10 Jay Huff IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
35%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.8 7.7 7.3
2 Austin Reaves LAL 23.9 4.6 6.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.3 4.9 3.2
4 LeBron James LAL 21.3 6.9 6.7
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.3 3.2 7.5
6 Jarace Walker IND 15.8 6.1 3.5
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.0 3.0 1.8
8 Jay Huff IND 11.0 4.1 1.5
9 T.J. McConnell IND 8.3 2.6 5.9
10 Kobe Brown IND 8.1 3.2 1.4
11 Micah Potter IND 8.0 4.0 1.2
12 Obi Toppin IND 7.8 3.0 2.1
13 Quenton Jackson IND 7.2 2.5 3.1
14 Luke Kennard LAL 7.1 2.5 1.6
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.8 4.8 1.0
16 Ben Sheppard IND 6.8 2.5 1.4
17 Kam Jones IND 5.9 1.8 3.5
18 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.8 3.1 1.5
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.4 3.0 0.9
20 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.2 2.1 0.6
21 Drew Timme LAL 3.0 1.2 0.6
22 Bronny James LAL 2.8 0.7 1.0
23 Kobe Bufkin LAL 2.7 1.0 0.4
24 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.0 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.