NBA games

ATL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
130–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
ATL373625239130
DET292640268129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DET
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 42 27 8 12
CJ McCollum S 35 27 1 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 40 21 4 3
Dyson Daniels S 43 16 13 4
Onyeka Okongwu S 24 11 1 2
Gabe Vincent 11 8 1 0
Jonathan Kuminga 20 8 5 1
Jock Landale 28 5 10 2
Corey Kispert 12 5 4 2
Zaccharie Risacher 9 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 42 26 14 3
Tobias Harris S 35 22 3 3
Daniss Jenkins S 45 19 3 10
Ausar Thompson S 37 18 4 5
Duncan Robinson S 32 17 7 4
Kevin Huerter 20 8 2 2
Javonte Green 15 7 3 2
Paul Reed 11 6 0 1
Caris LeVert 15 4 5 2
Ronald Holland II 12 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes 4-foot alley oop dunk (Daniss Jenkins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
13%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 CJ McCollum ATL
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
8%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
9 Daniss Jenkins DET
7%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
10%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.0 3.4 3.9
2 Jalen Duren DET 22.6 10.0 1.8
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.7 7.8 7.5
4 CJ McCollum ATL 19.2 3.7 5.2
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.8 6.9 4.5
6 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 13.7 5.6 2.7
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.5 6.6 2.7
8 Daniss Jenkins DET 12.5 3.2 5.4
9 Tobias Harris DET 12.3 5.3 2.6
10 Duncan Robinson DET 10.6 2.7 2.4
11 Ausar Thompson DET 10.0 5.7 3.2
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.7 4.6 1.2
13 Kevin Huerter DET 7.8 3.1 2.3
14 Ronald Holland II DET 7.6 2.9 1.0
15 Paul Reed DET 7.4 4.1 0.9
16 Caris LeVert DET 7.2 2.7 2.7
17 Corey Kispert ATL 6.3 1.9 1.6
18 Jock Landale ATL 6.3 2.3 1.6
19 Javonte Green DET 6.0 2.2 0.9
20 Buddy Hield ATL 5.1 2.0 1.4
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.7 3.2 0.7
22 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.0 1.2 1.0
23 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.2 1.1 0.7
24 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.7 1.1 0.5
25 Tolu Smith DET 2.7 3.1 0.5
26 Isaac Jones DET 1.9 0.9 0.3
27 Bobi Klintman DET 1.7 1.0 0.5
28 Chaz Lanier DET 1.4 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.