NBA games

DEN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
125–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28393028125
PHX35223828123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home PHX
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 35 23 17 17
Jamal Murray S 38 21 1 6
Tim Hardaway Jr. 23 18 3 2
Aaron Gordon S 26 16 6 3
Cameron Johnson S 33 14 3 2
Christian Braun S 32 13 3 1
Bruce Brown 23 9 9 3
Julian Strawther 8 7 1 1
Spencer Jones 22 4 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 35 22 3 8
Grayson Allen 23 21 5 3
Jalen Green S 29 21 6 6
Royce O'Neale S 28 17 5 3
Oso Ighodaro S 34 15 6 1
Collin Gillespie S 27 11 3 1
Jordan Goodwin 26 7 8 2
Khaman Maluach 11 6 1 0
Rasheer Fleming 23 3 4 0
Jamaree Bouyea 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Gillespie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Collin Gillespie makes 24-foot three pointer (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
19%
2 Jalen Green PHX
12%
3 Christian Braun DEN
10%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX
9%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
9 Jordan Goodwin PHX
6%
10 Cameron Johnson DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
11%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.3 4.4 6.3
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.0 11.3 9.6
3 Jalen Green PHX 24.4 4.6 4.5
4 Jamal Murray DEN 22.8 4.4 6.2
5 Grayson Allen PHX 18.3 3.2 4.9
6 Christian Braun DEN 14.7 5.2 2.9
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.1 4.7 2.9
8 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.9 4.2 5.1
9 Cameron Johnson DEN 12.2 3.7 2.5
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.8 2.6 1.7
11 Oso Ighodaro PHX 10.3 6.2 3.4
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.5 5.0 1.8
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.0 3.7 2.3
14 Bruce Brown DEN 7.9 2.7 1.5
15 Rasheer Fleming PHX 7.0 4.0 0.9
16 Spencer Jones DEN 5.6 3.0 1.0
17 Julian Strawther DEN 5.4 1.3 0.7
18 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.9 3.8 0.7
19 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.0 1.5 0.6
20 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.9 1.9 1.6
21 Koby Brea PHX 3.6 1.1 1.0
22 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 3.5 3.0 0.5
23 Curtis Jones DEN 3.3 1.2 0.7
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.2 1.2 0.7
25 Tyus Jones DEN 3.0 1.2 1.1
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.5 1.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.