NBA games

ORL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
131–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL39292934131
CLE32403331136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CLE
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 40 36 6 5
Tristan da Silva S 36 18 6 3
Desmond Bane S 36 17 7 3
Jamal Cain S 32 17 6 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 15 5 2
Jevon Carter 27 15 4 4
Jett Howard 16 5 1 2
Moritz Wagner 5 4 2 0
Goga Bitadze 14 4 2 3
Noah Penda 5 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 42 2 3
James Harden S 37 26 3 7
Evan Mobley S 33 19 9 6
Sam Merrill S 33 19 4 1
Max Strus 27 11 3 3
Thomas Bryant 13 9 6 1
Dennis Schroder 16 6 1 2
Dean Wade S 21 2 1 1
Keon Ellis 20 2 3 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jamal Cain assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane ORL
15%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
12%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
6 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
7 James Harden CLE
8%
8 Sam Merrill CLE
8%
9 Jevon Carter ORL
6%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
36%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.2 7.7 5.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.3 4.9 5.4
3 James Harden CLE 23.2 5.7 7.3
4 Desmond Bane ORL 21.9 4.2 5.1
5 Evan Mobley CLE 21.6 10.4 2.9
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.8 6.9 2.3
7 Tristan da Silva ORL 13.0 4.6 2.4
8 Sam Merrill CLE 11.8 3.7 2.5
9 Keon Ellis CLE 9.4 3.5 1.5
10 Max Strus CLE 9.0 6.1 1.8
11 Jevon Carter ORL 7.8 2.5 1.8
12 Jett Howard ORL 7.8 2.6 1.2
13 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.8 2.1 3.4
14 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.8 3.5 0.7
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.4 4.5 1.5
16 Jamal Cain ORL 5.5 2.4 0.9
17 Alex Morales ORL 5.1 3.0 1.9
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.8 3.7 1.6
19 Moritz Wagner ORL 4.4 3.3 0.7
20 Noah Penda ORL 4.4 2.8 1.4
21 Colin Castleton ORL 3.8 2.9 0.6
22 Jase Richardson ORL 3.8 1.4 1.0
23 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.1 0.6 1.3
24 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 2.5 1.3 0.5
25 Riley Minix CLE 2.2 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.