NBA games

NO @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
116121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO28323224116
NY42242728121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home NY
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 34 22 4 2
Jeremiah Fears 20 21 1 3
Saddiq Bey S 28 18 4 2
Trey Murphy III S 36 16 6 2
Herbert Jones S 37 13 2 6
Karlo Matkovic 23 12 3 1
Dejounte Murray S 28 7 5 12
Derik Queen 18 5 5 3
Yves Missi 17 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 32 1 7
OG Anunoby S 40 21 4 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 24 21 14 1
Mikal Bridges S 37 14 2 7
Mitchell Robinson 21 11 8 0
Jordan Clarkson 21 10 3 5
Josh Hart S 38 10 8 3
Mohamed Diawara 11 2 0 1
Jose Alvarado 9 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Herbert Jones · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes 3-foot turnaround jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
4 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
5 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
6 Josh Hart NY
9%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
8 OG Anunoby NY
9%
9 Herbert Jones NO
9%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
41%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.4 3.7 9.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.4 11.8 4.0
3 Trey Murphy III NO 20.5 5.6 4.3
4 Zion Williamson NO 20.4 5.9 2.8
5 Dejounte Murray NO 19.9 5.0 6.4
6 OG Anunoby NY 19.4 5.0 2.6
7 Saddiq Bey NO 17.3 5.1 2.8
8 Josh Hart NY 14.7 7.9 4.3
9 Mikal Bridges NY 10.3 4.3 2.6
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.2 3.5 2.7
11 Jeremiah Fears NO 9.9 2.5 3.1
12 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.2 1.9 1.3
13 Jordan Poole NO 7.9 2.7 2.2
14 Derik Queen NO 7.0 3.8 2.5
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.9 9.7 1.1
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 6.2 4.5 0.8
17 Mohamed Diawara NY 5.8 2.2 1.4
18 Yves Missi NO 5.5 6.3 1.3
19 Jose Alvarado NY 5.3 1.4 3.6
20 Kevon Looney NO 4.0 5.7 1.1
21 Tyler Kolek NY 3.6 1.3 2.0
22 DeAndre Jordan NO 3.5 5.0 0.5
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.2 1.4 0.7
24 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.8 2.1 0.6
25 Jordan Hawkins NO 1.8 0.7 0.3
26 Trey Jemison III NY 1.3 1.3 0.3
27 Micah Peavy NO 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.