NBA games

SAC @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
90–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2522291490
CHA34384121134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home CHA
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daeqwon Plowden 36 22 2 1
Devin Carter S 34 18 3 3
Maxime Raynaud S 30 16 7 0
Doug McDermott 30 9 1 2
DeMar DeRozan S 29 7 4 5
Malik Monk S 30 7 3 14
Dylan Cardwell 24 6 11 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. S 28 5 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White 18 27 5 1
LaMelo Ball S 23 20 6 8
Moussa Diabate S 24 17 11 2
Kon Knueppel S 21 14 4 3
Brandon Miller S 27 13 3 6
Miles Bridges S 24 9 8 4
Sion James 21 8 4 1
Liam McNeeley 10 7 6 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 22 6 4 1
Josh Green 17 6 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Maxime Raynaud · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Maxime Raynaud makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Malik Monk assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
17%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
3 Maxime Raynaud SAC
12%
4 Precious Achiuwa SAC
11%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
6 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
8 Nique Clifford SAC
7%
9 Moussa Diabate CHA
6%
10 Daeqwon Plowden SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
18%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.8 5.0 6.3
2 Maxime Raynaud SAC 19.8 8.4 2.4
3 Brandon Miller CHA 19.7 5.9 4.6
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.0 3.4 5.2
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 17.8 4.2 3.4
6 Coby White CHA 16.6 3.5 4.1
7 Miles Bridges CHA 15.6 4.6 2.6
8 Precious Achiuwa SAC 15.3 9.9 1.6
9 Nique Clifford SAC 13.0 5.4 3.9
10 Malik Monk SAC 12.7 2.2 3.5
11 Devin Carter SAC 10.7 3.6 3.0
12 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 10.0 2.9 1.1
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 7.8 8.6 2.5
14 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.9 8.6 1.6
15 Killian Hayes SAC 6.7 2.9 3.1
16 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.7 4.5 0.9
17 Grant Williams CHA 6.1 3.1 1.6
18 Doug McDermott SAC 5.9 1.6 0.9
19 Sion James CHA 5.8 3.1 1.8
20 Josh Green CHA 4.9 2.0 1.1
21 Liam McNeeley CHA 3.6 1.7 0.9
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. SAC 3.5 2.4 0.7
23 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.3 3.1 0.6
24 Tre Mann CHA 3.0 1.2 1.0
25 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.