NBA games

MIL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
96–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2423202996
LAC28433721129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home LAC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. 31 20 1 1
AJ Green 21 15 1 2
Ryan Rollins S 27 13 4 7
Bobby Portis 20 11 6 1
Pete Nance 31 11 6 2
Ousmane Dieng S 27 7 5 7
Myles Turner S 20 7 0 0
Taurean Prince S 20 5 6 0
Jericho Sims S 19 4 3 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 16 3 4 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 25 28 5 3
Brook Lopez S 22 19 3 3
Kobe Sanders 26 19 3 4
Darius Garland S 18 15 2 6
Jordan Miller 21 10 4 4
Cam Christie 16 8 1 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 7 5 1
Kris Dunn 21 7 1 3
Isaiah Jackson 17 6 4 1
Sean Pedulla 9 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · Layup (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Darius Garland makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
16%
2 Darius Garland LAC
15%
3 Ryan Rollins MIL
14%
4 Ousmane Dieng MIL
12%
5 Brook Lopez LAC
11%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
11%
7 Taurean Prince MIL
10%
8 Myles Turner MIL
10%
9 Jericho Sims MIL
0%
10 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
5%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 29.2 6.4 4.3
2 Darius Garland LAC 22.8 3.3 7.7
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.4 4.9 6.9
4 Bobby Portis MIL 15.3 5.7 1.9
5 Jordan Miller LAC 12.6 3.5 3.2
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.4 4.6 2.4
7 Ousmane Dieng MIL 11.4 3.7 2.9
8 Brook Lopez LAC 10.4 4.3 1.9
9 Myles Turner MIL 9.1 3.9 1.5
10 Isaiah Jackson LAC 9.0 6.5 1.5
11 Kris Dunn LAC 7.7 3.9 3.7
12 AJ Green MIL 6.4 2.2 1.3
13 Jericho Sims MIL 6.3 5.5 1.7
14 Taurean Prince MIL 5.9 2.2 1.1
15 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.9 2.0 1.7
16 Kobe Sanders LAC 5.9 1.7 1.4
17 Pete Nance MIL 5.1 2.8 1.1
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.3 1.9 1.1
19 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 4.2 1.3 0.7
20 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.5 0.8 1.4
21 Cam Christie LAC 2.0 1.2 0.6
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.6 1.1 0.4
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.6 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.