NBA games

GS @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
137–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
GS3429352811137
DAL314225285131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DAL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody S 34 23 3 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 22 7 5
Brandin Podziemski S 40 20 10 6
Gary Payton II 21 17 4 3
Gui Santos 35 16 6 5
LJ Cryer 19 14 4 1
Will Richard 12 12 0 1
Draymond Green S 38 11 7 6
Pat Spencer 12 2 2 4
De'Anthony Melton S 23 0 6 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 42 32 4 9
Daniel Gafford S 32 20 7 5
Naji Marshall S 35 16 6 7
Klay Thompson 28 15 1 1
Max Christie S 33 15 2 1
Marvin Bagley III 15 9 0 3
John Poulakidas 12 9 0 1
P.J. Washington S 34 9 3 2
Ryan Nembhard 17 4 1 5
Khris Middleton 12 2 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Naji Marshall · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:17 Q1
"Naji Marshall makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
2 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
4 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
5 De'Anthony Melton GS
9%
6 Gui Santos GS
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Max Christie DAL
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Kristaps Porzingis GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
22%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 21.1 7.8 6.4
2 De'Anthony Melton GS 18.3 4.3 3.3
3 Gui Santos GS 18.1 5.7 5.3
4 Brandin Podziemski GS 17.8 5.6 4.2
5 Naji Marshall DAL 17.4 4.2 4.4
6 Moses Moody GS 15.1 3.5 2.4
7 P.J. Washington DAL 14.5 6.5 1.9
8 Gary Payton II GS 13.7 5.5 2.7
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.7 9.3 1.5
10 Kristaps Porzingis GS 12.3 4.3 2.1
11 Klay Thompson DAL 11.3 2.1 1.7
12 Khris Middleton DAL 11.3 3.2 2.1
13 Draymond Green GS 10.9 4.7 6.4
14 Pat Spencer GS 10.4 2.7 3.1
15 Max Christie DAL 10.3 2.9 1.7
16 Quinten Post GS 9.3 4.9 1.9
17 Marvin Bagley III DAL 9.2 6.5 1.4
18 Will Richard GS 7.8 3.1 1.7
19 LJ Cryer GS 7.3 1.8 1.1
20 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.5 2.3 4.7
21 Omer Yurtseven GS 3.9 3.3 1.1
22 John Poulakidas DAL 3.6 1.9 0.4
23 Dwight Powell DAL 3.5 3.4 0.7
24 AJ Johnson DAL 3.5 1.4 0.9
25 Malevy Leons GS 3.5 2.2 1.0
26 Tyler Smith DAL 1.7 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.