NBA games

TOR @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
143–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR31374926143
UTAH25333039127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home UTAH
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 25 27 2 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 32 23 4 2
Ja'Kobe Walter S 28 21 5 2
Scottie Barnes S 27 20 7 10
Jamison Battle 23 17 4 2
Gradey Dick 28 13 3 6
Collin Murray-Boyles 17 9 4 1
Jamal Shead S 29 7 1 14
Jonathan Mogbo 9 4 4 1
Markelle Fultz 16 2 0 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ace Bailey S 35 37 6 3
Brice Sensabaugh 31 24 5 1
John Konchar S 23 19 3 1
Oscar Tshiebwe 28 16 7 2
Kennedy Chandler 29 13 5 9
Elijah Harkless S 32 9 2 4
Kyle Filipowski S 30 6 8 4
Bez Mbeng S 31 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 5-foot hook shot (Jamal Shead assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Isaiah Collier UTAH
12%
2 Cody Williams UTAH
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
9%
7 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
8 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
8%
9 Bez Mbeng UTAH
8%
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
26%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 23.1 5.8 3.1
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.2 4.9 3.8
3 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 19.8 3.8 2.8
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.1 6.2 5.0
5 Ace Bailey UTAH 18.0 4.8 2.4
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH 17.9 3.3 6.2
7 Cody Williams UTAH 17.6 4.8 4.7
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 15.5 8.6 4.1
9 Kennedy Chandler UTAH 13.9 3.1 3.7
10 Elijah Harkless UTAH 10.8 2.9 3.4
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.7 4.3 1.8
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.0 2.7 1.4
13 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 7.8 3.8 1.6
14 Bez Mbeng UTAH 7.8 3.8 3.9
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.9 1.9 1.2
16 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 5.9 5.2 0.8
17 Jamal Shead TOR 5.9 2.4 4.0
18 John Konchar UTAH 5.8 4.2 1.7
19 Gradey Dick TOR 5.0 1.9 0.8
20 Kevin Love UTAH 5.0 5.2 1.3
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.0 2.0 0.8
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 3.2 2.7 0.7
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.1 2.6 0.7
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.7 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.