NBA games

HOU @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
124–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU21273937124
CHI41243037132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home CHI
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 40 40 7 5
Alperen Sengun S 37 33 13 10
Amen Thompson S 39 23 3 1
Reed Sheppard S 36 13 5 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 34 6 5 1
Tari Eason 14 4 3 1
Aaron Holiday 21 3 1 3
Clint Capela 4 2 1 0
Jae'Sean Tate 3 0 0 0
Josh Okogie 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 26 25 4 2
Matas Buzelis S 35 23 4 1
Leonard Miller 23 17 9 3
Josh Giddey S 39 15 7 13
Jalen Smith S 26 15 6 2
Tre Jones S 28 15 5 6
Nick Richards S 26 11 8 0
Rob Dillingham 18 9 1 3
Patrick Williams 19 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 6-foot pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Matas Buzelis CHI
15%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
4 Tre Jones CHI
8%
5 Kevin Durant HOU
8%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
7 Collin Sexton CHI
7%
8 Nick Richards CHI
7%
9 Josh Giddey CHI
6%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
26%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 24.2 5.8 4.8
2 Amen Thompson HOU 22.6 9.6 5.7
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.4 8.8 6.0
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 19.8 6.7 2.5
5 Josh Giddey CHI 18.5 8.4 9.3
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 18.0 3.8 5.3
7 Tre Jones CHI 17.3 3.6 4.9
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.8 5.8 2.5
9 Collin Sexton CHI 14.9 2.5 2.6
10 Jalen Smith CHI 11.7 5.7 1.3
11 Leonard Miller CHI 11.3 5.6 1.2
12 Nick Richards CHI 10.4 7.6 1.0
13 Rob Dillingham CHI 9.4 2.8 3.1
14 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 9.3 5.0 1.8
15 Isaac Okoro CHI 8.9 2.5 1.6
16 Tari Eason HOU 8.6 6.2 1.7
17 Patrick Williams CHI 7.9 2.5 2.0
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.5 1.4 1.1
19 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.3 2.9 1.8
20 Clint Capela HOU 5.1 5.6 1.1
21 Josh Okogie HOU 4.3 2.0 1.0
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.6 1.7 0.7
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.3 1.2 0.7
24 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.6 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.