NBA games

SA @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
136–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA38383228136
MIA31272330111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIA
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 26 26 15 4
Dylan Harper 25 21 4 6
Keldon Johnson 24 21 6 1
Stephon Castle S 23 19 7 6
De'Aaron Fox S 29 14 3 6
Harrison Barnes 22 13 3 1
Carter Bryant 18 6 8 3
Devin Vassell S 21 6 2 4
Luke Kornet 19 5 8 1
Julian Champagnie S 22 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell 30 21 4 2
Tyler Herro S 26 18 5 2
Bam Adebayo S 29 18 3 4
Myron Gardner 18 9 2 0
Andrew Wiggins S 20 9 3 1
Kasparas Jakucionis 22 8 6 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 8 2 6
Pelle Larsson S 23 7 1 3
Kel'el Ware 22 7 7 1
Keshad Johnson 3 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
3 Stephon Castle SA
8%
4 Devin Vassell SA
8%
5 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
6 De'Aaron Fox SA
8%
7 Victor Wembanyama SA
8%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
62%
Jumper
11%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.3 10.7 3.7
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 28.3 9.5 3.4
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.9 5.5 5.1
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 22.7 4.4 6.6
5 Stephon Castle SA 18.4 5.6 8.3
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.2 4.0 5.4
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.9 5.3 2.4
8 Norman Powell MIA 15.0 3.3 2.3
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 14.7 3.3 3.4
10 Dylan Harper SA 13.7 3.9 4.0
11 Devin Vassell SA 13.4 3.8 2.7
12 Julian Champagnie SA 11.8 5.4 1.7
13 Keldon Johnson SA 11.8 4.2 1.4
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.0 3.0 4.9
15 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.6 8.7 1.3
16 Harrison Barnes SA 8.3 2.7 1.6
17 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 8.2 2.8 2.5
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.6 2.0 1.2
19 Carter Bryant SA 6.2 3.7 1.0
20 Dru Smith MIA 5.5 2.3 2.1
21 Luke Kornet SA 5.2 4.5 1.4
22 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.0 1.4 0.4
23 Myron Gardner MIA 4.0 3.0 1.1
24 Lindy Waters III SA 3.9 1.3 0.9
25 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.7 1.8 0.7
26 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.5 1.4 1.4
27 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.4 1.9 0.9
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.6 1.7 0.6
29 Mason Plumlee SA 2.2 2.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.