NBA games

OKC @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
123–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC35303226123
PHI25183624103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home PHI
85% 15%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 22 5 5
Jalen Williams S 20 18 4 6
Jaylin Williams 19 18 8 4
Chet Holmgren S 30 17 9 4
Jared McCain 25 13 1 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 10 12 5
Isaiah Joe 19 9 2 1
Cason Wallace 22 5 1 3
Aaron Wiggins 11 5 1 0
Alex Caruso 16 4 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
VJ Edgecombe S 39 35 6 4
Trendon Watford 22 15 6 4
MarJon Beauchamp S 32 13 6 2
Cameron Payne 26 10 2 6
Justin Edwards S 25 8 1 2
Dalen Terry 18 7 2 1
Andre Drummond 19 6 4 2
Jabari Walker 10 4 4 1
Adem Bona S 26 3 5 3
Tyrese Martin 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes alley oop layup (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
2 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
6 Adem Bona PHI
9%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
9 Justin Edwards PHI
8%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
24%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.6 4.7 7.7
2 Jalen Williams OKC 19.9 4.3 6.1
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 19.3 6.7 4.3
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.6 9.9 1.8
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16.4 3.8 3.8
6 Justin Edwards PHI 12.1 3.2 2.7
7 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.5 3.3 1.4
8 Jared McCain OKC 10.5 2.2 1.3
9 Jaylin Williams OKC 9.8 6.5 2.3
10 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.3 4.8 1.5
11 Cameron Payne PHI 9.1 2.9 3.1
12 Trendon Watford PHI 9.0 4.5 2.6
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.9 3.3 3.3
14 Adem Bona PHI 7.7 6.6 1.0
15 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 7.6 8.2 4.3
16 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 7.5 2.9 1.4
17 Jabari Walker PHI 7.5 3.3 1.0
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.3 3.0 1.4
19 Alex Caruso OKC 7.2 3.5 1.8
20 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.0 3.3 1.2
21 Andre Drummond PHI 6.3 7.4 1.8
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.7 2.4 1.1
23 Dalen Terry PHI 4.8 2.0 1.6
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 3.2 2.1 1.0
25 Branden Carlson OKC 2.5 2.2 0.4
26 Tyrese Martin PHI 2.1 1.3 0.8
27 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.9 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.