NBA games

IND @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
128–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND34254425128
ORL24403131126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home ORL
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 37 6 1
Jarace Walker S 33 20 5 2
Aaron Nesmith S 35 19 2 2
T.J. McConnell 20 13 0 6
Andrew Nembhard S 35 13 7 14
Obi Toppin 17 8 2 4
Jay Huff S 28 7 6 0
Micah Potter 20 6 4 3
Ben Sheppard 18 5 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 39 4 6
Tristan da Silva S 34 21 3 5
Desmond Bane S 32 17 6 7
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 17 5 2
Jett Howard 16 10 2 0
Jase Richardson 19 9 1 3
Goga Bitadze 20 6 7 4
Jamal Cain 23 5 5 1
Jevon Carter S 24 2 2 0
Noah Penda 8 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes layup (Tristan da Silva assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
13%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
4 Jarace Walker IND
12%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
6 Quenton Jackson IND
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
10 Jay Huff IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
30%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.1 8.8 5.9
2 Desmond Bane ORL 22.5 4.5 5.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 20.8 5.0 3.2
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 17.9 2.7 6.2
5 Jarace Walker IND 15.3 6.2 3.6
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.4 7.6 2.6
7 Tristan da Silva ORL 13.3 4.6 2.6
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.4 2.9 1.6
9 Jay Huff IND 10.8 4.0 1.5
10 Jevon Carter ORL 8.9 2.7 2.4
11 Micah Potter IND 8.6 4.2 1.0
12 Kobe Brown IND 8.2 3.4 1.4
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.1 2.8 5.6
14 Quenton Jackson IND 7.5 2.6 3.0
15 Jett Howard ORL 7.4 2.6 1.3
16 Obi Toppin IND 7.1 3.1 1.7
17 Ben Sheppard IND 7.0 2.5 1.5
18 Kam Jones IND 5.9 1.8 3.4
19 Alex Morales ORL 5.5 3.0 2.2
20 Jamal Cain ORL 5.4 2.1 1.0
21 Moritz Wagner ORL 4.9 3.5 0.9
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.8 3.9 1.4
23 Noah Penda ORL 4.8 3.1 1.5
24 Colin Castleton ORL 4.4 3.3 0.7
25 Jase Richardson ORL 2.9 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.