NBA games

LAL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
110–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL27253523110
DET23422424113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DET
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 32 7 6
Austin Reaves S 40 24 2 5
Deandre Ayton S 27 13 10 0
LeBron James S 39 12 9 10
Jaxson Hayes 21 11 3 1
Jake LaRavia S 29 7 1 1
Luke Kennard 28 6 3 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 15 4 4 2
Adou Thiero 2 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniss Jenkins S 39 30 4 8
Jalen Duren S 33 20 11 3
Tobias Harris S 32 14 7 5
Duncan Robinson S 28 12 0 2
Paul Reed 15 8 4 1
Caris LeVert 17 8 3 4
Kevin Huerter 20 7 1 3
Ausar Thompson S 36 6 5 3
Javonte Green 15 6 2 1
Ronald Holland II 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 7-foot two point shot (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
15%
2 Jalen Duren DET
14%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
7 Tobias Harris DET
8%
8 Daniss Jenkins DET
8%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
16%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 28.3 7.1 8.8
2 Austin Reaves LAL 23.2 4.6 6.0
3 Jalen Duren DET 22.7 9.5 1.8
4 LeBron James LAL 22.2 6.3 6.4
5 Tobias Harris DET 13.1 4.9 2.4
6 Duncan Robinson DET 11.0 3.0 2.5
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.4 7.5 1.2
8 Ausar Thompson DET 10.0 5.7 3.4
9 Daniss Jenkins DET 9.9 2.9 4.8
10 Ronald Holland II DET 8.7 3.4 1.1
11 Paul Reed DET 7.3 4.2 0.9
12 Luke Kennard LAL 6.9 2.0 1.4
13 Caris LeVert DET 6.8 2.7 2.7
14 Javonte Green DET 6.5 2.4 0.9
15 Kevin Huerter DET 6.4 2.9 1.8
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.8 4.1 0.9
17 Jake LaRavia LAL 4.8 2.8 1.2
18 Tolu Smith DET 3.8 3.5 0.8
19 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.6 1.8 0.5
20 Drew Timme LAL 2.3 0.9 0.5
21 Bronny James LAL 2.3 0.5 0.9
22 Chaz Lanier DET 2.3 1.0 0.6
23 Kobe Bufkin LAL 2.1 0.7 0.4
24 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 1.5 1.8 0.5
25 Dalton Knecht LAL 1.5 0.7 0.3
26 Adou Thiero LAL 1.4 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.