NBA games

MEM @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
107–146
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM22242932107
ATL32394530146

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home ATL
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 30 26 3 0
Tyler Burton 28 20 8 1
Ty Jerome S 24 17 1 4
Walter Clayton Jr. 28 16 1 6
Taylor Hendricks 26 9 4 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 25 8 3 1
DeJon Jarreau 22 7 6 4
Jaylen Wells S 20 4 2 2
Rayan Rupert S 30 0 5 2
Taj Gibson 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 26 26 2 6
Jonathan Kuminga 20 16 5 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 20 16 5 2
CJ McCollum S 22 15 4 9
Dyson Daniels S 24 12 5 4
Corey Kispert 16 11 1 1
Zaccharie Risacher 26 11 8 0
Jock Landale 21 11 4 2
Keaton Wallace 8 9 1 2
Caleb Houstan 7 6 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
GG Jackson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"GG Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 GG Jackson MEM
13%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
3 CJ McCollum ATL
11%
4 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
10%
5 Ty Jerome MEM
9%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
9 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM
7%
10 Rayan Rupert MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
39%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 24.1 3.8 3.9
2 CJ McCollum ATL 20.3 4.0 5.3
3 Ty Jerome MEM 19.2 3.5 5.8
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.2 7.5 5.4
5 GG Jackson MEM 15.9 5.8 2.0
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.1 7.6 3.6
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.0 2.7 1.5
8 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 12.9 4.7 1.5
9 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 12.6 6.2 2.7
10 Taylor Hendricks MEM 12.1 4.4 1.7
11 Cam Spencer MEM 10.0 2.7 4.2
12 Rayan Rupert MEM 9.9 5.0 1.2
13 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 9.8 2.5 5.6
14 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.2 4.9 1.4
15 Jock Landale ATL 7.2 2.8 1.8
16 DeJon Jarreau MEM 7.0 4.7 3.5
17 Tyler Burton MEM 6.9 3.5 1.0
18 Corey Kispert ATL 6.8 2.3 1.8
19 Buddy Hield ATL 6.0 2.4 1.6
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.3 3.6 0.8
21 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.3 1.6 1.2
22 Taj Gibson MEM 3.6 2.6 0.5
23 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.8 1.1 0.7
24 Christian Koloko ATL 2.8 2.4 0.5
25 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.7 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.