NBA games

TOR @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
98–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2028212998
PHX34323123120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home PHX
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 26 17 5 6
RJ Barrett S 23 13 3 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 26 13 3 1
Immanuel Quickley S 26 11 3 1
Gradey Dick 15 10 3 1
Jonathan Mogbo 17 8 1 2
Jamison Battle 11 7 2 0
Brandon Ingram S 27 6 4 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 18 5 3 2
Garrett Temple 8 5 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 31 25 3 6
Jalen Green S 30 20 3 7
Collin Gillespie S 22 16 4 3
Jordan Goodwin S 25 14 7 0
Ryan Dunn 27 12 3 2
Rasheer Fleming 29 11 7 1
Jamaree Bouyea 19 7 2 4
Khaman Maluach 17 7 7 0
Oso Ighodaro S 26 6 7 1
CJ Huntley 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jalen Green makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
18%
2 Jalen Green PHX
13%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
8%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
8%
7 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
84%
Jumper
4%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.8 4.6 5.4
2 Jalen Green PHX 23.4 4.5 3.8
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.3 4.6 3.9
4 RJ Barrett TOR 22.4 5.7 2.8
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 17.3 6.0 4.0
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.4 3.3 6.3
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.3 9.2 2.1
8 Collin Gillespie PHX 11.9 4.1 4.7
9 Oso Ighodaro PHX 10.3 6.0 3.3
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.2 4.7 1.8
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.0 3.8 2.2
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.3 4.0 1.7
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.7 2.3 1.2
14 Rasheer Fleming PHX 6.6 3.7 0.7
15 Jamal Shead TOR 6.0 2.1 3.3
16 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.0 3.6 1.0
17 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.3 3.6 0.7
18 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.2 2.2 1.6
19 Gradey Dick TOR 3.8 1.3 0.5
20 Jamison Battle TOR 3.4 1.6 0.6
21 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.6 1.4 0.6
22 Koby Brea PHX 2.2 0.5 0.7
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 1.8 2.1 0.4
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.7 2.0 0.4
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.