NBA games

MIN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
102–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN14332926102
BOS2321331592

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home BOS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bones Hyland 29 23 3 3
Jaden McDaniels S 33 19 6 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 32 17 8 6
Naz Reid 26 11 7 0
Julius Randle S 29 9 9 4
Rudy Gobert S 26 9 14 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 8 2 2
Kyle Anderson 16 6 4 3
Jaylen Clark 12 0 3 2
Zyon Pullin 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 29 7 4
Jayson Tatum S 31 16 11 2
Derrick White S 36 15 6 1
Payton Pritchard 27 10 1 3
Luka Garza 17 5 6 1
Baylor Scheierman 29 5 4 2
Max Shulga 2 4 1 1
Neemias Queta S 27 4 10 1
Charles Bassey 2 2 1 0
Sam Hauser S 19 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Derrick White makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
15%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
3 Derrick White BOS
10%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
10%
7 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
8 Sam Hauser BOS
9%
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
9%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
33%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.9 6.6 6.8
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 21.8 8.5 4.0
3 Julius Randle MIN 21.2 6.6 3.9
4 Derrick White BOS 20.2 4.6 5.4
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.7 4.0 5.2
6 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 14.5 4.4 3.4
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.5 3.7 2.4
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.4 10.1 1.7
9 Neemias Queta BOS 10.8 8.9 1.7
10 Naz Reid MIN 10.7 5.1 1.4
11 Luka Garza BOS 9.4 3.7 1.2
12 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.1 3.9 2.8
13 Bones Hyland MIN 9.0 1.6 2.0
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 8.7 5.5 2.5
15 Sam Hauser BOS 8.4 4.2 1.4
16 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.9 4.1 1.0
17 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.2 2.9 2.2
18 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.1 1.5 0.6
19 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.5 1.1 0.8
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.1 0.8 0.3
21 Charles Bassey BOS 3.1 5.4 0.4
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.0 2.1 0.4
23 Zyon Pullin MIN 2.9 0.8 2.0
24 Mike Conley MIN 2.4 1.4 1.7
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.3 0.6 0.3
26 Joan Beringer MIN 1.9 1.5 0.3
27 Amari Williams BOS 1.7 1.8 0.4
28 Max Shulga BOS 1.6 0.7 0.4
29 Joe Ingles MIN 1.4 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.