NBA games

WSH @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
113–145
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH27252932113
NY32363740145

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home NY
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Hardy 29 25 3 1
Anthony Gill 26 18 5 0
Bub Carrington S 34 14 1 8
Tristan Vukcevic S 15 13 1 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 29 13 5 2
Will Riley S 29 11 1 4
Sharife Cooper 29 11 3 6
Jamir Watkins S 31 5 6 2
Leaky Black 17 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 26 26 16 3
Jalen Brunson S 28 23 0 4
Josh Hart S 28 16 6 4
Mikal Bridges S 30 14 0 6
Mohamed Diawara 20 12 1 0
Tyler Kolek 5 11 1 1
Mitchell Robinson 17 10 10 1
OG Anunoby S 29 9 2 0
Jeremy Sochan 8 8 6 1
Jordan Clarkson 23 8 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 15-foot jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
14%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
4 Will Riley WSH
9%
5 Josh Hart NY
9%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
7 OG Anunoby NY
8%
8 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
9 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
10 Tre Johnson WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
33%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.8 4.1 9.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.9 13.3 4.4
3 OG Anunoby NY 21.2 5.5 2.9
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.8 4.5 3.2
5 Will Riley WSH 15.4 3.5 2.6
6 Josh Hart NY 14.6 8.0 4.8
7 Bub Carrington WSH 12.3 3.2 3.9
8 Alex Sarr WSH 12.0 5.9 2.5
9 Tre Johnson WSH 10.8 3.0 1.8
10 Mikal Bridges NY 10.5 4.8 2.7
11 Jaden Hardy WSH 10.4 2.1 1.6
12 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.4 4.1 1.4
13 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.7 4.1 1.4
14 Leaky Black WSH 9.1 4.2 1.2
15 Jamir Watkins WSH 8.8 3.4 1.9
16 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.3 2.0 1.2
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.7 9.1 1.3
18 Anthony Gill WSH 6.3 3.5 1.6
19 Mohamed Diawara NY 6.1 2.3 1.6
20 Sharife Cooper WSH 5.7 1.9 2.1
21 Jose Alvarado NY 5.4 1.5 3.9
22 Tyler Kolek NY 2.8 0.8 1.6
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.7 1.0 0.6
24 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.1 1.5 0.5
25 Dillon Jones NY 2.0 1.3 0.6
26 Trey Jemison III NY 1.9 1.4 0.4
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.