NBA games

BKN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
122–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN34282040122
SAC30272841126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home SAC
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ben Saraf 29 22 3 5
Ziaire Williams S 22 18 2 3
Malachi Smith 29 18 2 4
Nolan Traore S 26 17 2 4
Tyson Etienne 13 14 0 1
Danny Wolf S 12 9 4 0
Drake Powell S 28 8 3 3
Chaney Johnson 16 7 3 3
Terance Mann S 26 5 3 2
Ochai Agbaji 9 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 30 32 2 6
Maxime Raynaud S 36 22 10 2
Devin Carter 27 16 5 3
Precious Achiuwa S 28 14 15 0
DeMar DeRozan S 32 10 0 8
Doug McDermott 16 9 2 2
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 17 9 6 2
Nique Clifford S 27 7 4 4
Dylan Cardwell 15 5 3 2
Killian Hayes S 12 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Maxime Raynaud · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Maxime Raynaud makes 4-foot layup (Nique Clifford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC
17%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
3 Precious Achiuwa SAC
14%
4 Nique Clifford SAC
10%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Nolan Traore BKN
8%
7 Danny Wolf BKN
8%
8 Drake Powell BKN
8%
9 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
21%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC 20.8 9.5 2.4
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 20.0 3.8 5.2
3 Precious Achiuwa SAC 16.5 9.7 1.7
4 Nique Clifford SAC 14.5 5.9 4.6
5 Malik Monk SAC 12.5 2.3 3.5
6 Keegan Murray SAC 11.9 3.7 1.6
7 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.4 2.5 2.0
8 Danny Wolf BKN 10.7 5.9 2.9
9 Nolan Traore BKN 10.5 2.6 4.0
10 Devin Carter SAC 10.1 3.3 2.9
11 Ben Saraf BKN 8.3 2.3 4.2
12 Josh Minott BKN 8.2 2.6 1.3
13 Dylan Cardwell SAC 7.6 9.4 1.6
14 Killian Hayes SAC 7.1 3.0 3.4
15 Ochai Agbaji BKN 7.1 2.7 1.1
16 Chaney Johnson BKN 7.0 4.3 1.8
17 Terance Mann BKN 6.9 2.7 2.2
18 Drake Powell BKN 6.8 2.2 1.5
19 Doug McDermott SAC 6.2 1.8 0.9
20 Malachi Smith BKN 5.3 2.5 2.3
21 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.1 1.8 0.8
22 Tyson Etienne BKN 4.6 1.2 1.0
23 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.9 3.5 0.7
24 E.J. Liddell BKN 3.6 2.3 1.0
25 Patrick Baldwin Jr. SAC 2.4 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.