NBA games

POR @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
112–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR40292419112
DEN42333221128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DEN
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 33 23 6 14
Donovan Clingan S 25 18 13 1
Toumani Camara S 30 16 5 2
Robert Williams III 19 16 5 1
Scoot Henderson 27 13 3 2
Jrue Holiday S 29 9 3 3
Sidy Cissoko S 19 7 2 1
Jayson Kent 4 3 1 0
Matisse Thybulle 25 3 3 1
Kris Murray 18 2 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 35 22 14 14
Jamal Murray S 31 22 2 7
Cameron Johnson S 28 19 2 3
Christian Braun S 29 15 6 2
Peyton Watson 20 14 6 3
Bruce Brown 26 13 3 3
Aaron Gordon S 28 12 3 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 22 6 4 1
Spencer Jones 11 5 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 20-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
12%
2 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
3 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
4 Christian Braun DEN
10%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
8 Jerami Grant POR
7%
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR
7%
10 Jrue Holiday POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
35%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.4 12.1 10.3
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.4 4.5 6.4
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.3 4.3 3.4
4 Deni Avdija POR 20.9 6.1 6.9
5 Peyton Watson DEN 20.1 5.0 2.9
6 Jrue Holiday POR 19.7 4.3 6.9
7 Jerami Grant POR 18.6 3.9 2.6
8 Donovan Clingan POR 17.0 11.1 2.9
9 Scoot Henderson POR 15.6 3.1 3.7
10 Christian Braun DEN 14.5 5.3 3.2
11 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.2 5.5 3.5
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.7 3.0 1.8
13 Cameron Johnson DEN 12.0 4.1 2.2
14 Toumani Camara POR 11.5 4.4 2.4
15 Robert Williams III POR 8.6 9.4 1.1
16 Bruce Brown DEN 7.4 2.8 1.8
17 Kris Murray POR 6.3 3.3 1.3
18 Spencer Jones DEN 6.2 3.7 1.0
19 Vit Krejci POR 5.7 3.0 1.5
20 Julian Strawther DEN 5.2 1.5 0.9
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 2.1 1.0
22 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.4 1.9 1.2
23 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 4.4 3.5 0.8
24 Blake Wesley POR 3.8 0.9 1.3
25 Tyus Jones DEN 3.4 1.4 1.4
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.8 1.0 0.6
27 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.7 1.1 0.4
28 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.0 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.