NBA games

MIL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
108–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL15422427108
PHX26263023105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home PHX
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 33 26 10 7
Kyle Kuzma S 24 20 2 1
Gary Trent Jr. 23 11 1 0
Ousmane Dieng S 33 11 2 2
Taurean Prince S 22 8 2 1
AJ Green 17 8 5 2
Myles Turner S 21 7 3 0
Cam Thomas 16 7 1 1
Pete Nance 27 5 5 3
Jericho Sims 25 5 11 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 36 24 3 2
Collin Gillespie S 33 18 4 6
Devin Booker S 35 14 4 7
Ryan Dunn 23 12 8 3
Oso Ighodaro S 32 12 5 3
Jordan Goodwin S 27 11 7 4
Rasheer Fleming 19 8 2 0
Jamaree Bouyea 9 4 2 2
Khaman Maluach 16 2 2 0
Isaiah Livers 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jalen Green makes driving layup (Oso Ighodaro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green PHX
18%
2 Devin Booker PHX
16%
3 Oso Ighodaro PHX
11%
4 Collin Gillespie PHX
9%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
6 Jordan Goodwin PHX
8%
7 Myles Turner MIL
8%
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL
7%
9 AJ Green MIL
7%
10 Ousmane Dieng MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
12%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.5 4.7 6.6
2 Jalen Green PHX 23.8 4.8 4.4
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 17.3 4.2 6.3
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.6 3.4 3.1
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.0 4.1 5.5
6 Oso Ighodaro PHX 10.7 7.4 3.7
7 Ousmane Dieng MIL 10.0 3.6 2.7
8 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.2 4.4 2.0
9 Myles Turner MIL 8.7 4.1 1.5
10 Cam Thomas MIL 7.6 1.5 2.1
11 Rasheer Fleming PHX 6.8 3.9 0.9
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.3 3.6 1.1
13 AJ Green MIL 6.2 2.2 1.1
14 Jericho Sims MIL 5.9 5.4 1.5
15 Taurean Prince MIL 5.8 1.9 1.0
16 Cormac Ryan MIL 4.7 1.3 0.6
17 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.6 3.7 0.8
18 Pete Nance MIL 4.5 2.3 0.8
19 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.3 2.0 1.7
20 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 3.8 1.3 0.5
21 Koby Brea PHX 2.7 0.6 0.8
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.4 1.6 0.5
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.4 0.5
24 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.1 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.