NBA games

LAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
138–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
LAC3231372216138
DAL423027239131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DAL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 39 41 3 11
Kawhi Leonard S 36 34 3 5
Derrick Jones Jr. S 37 15 6 5
Isaiah Jackson 15 10 6 2
Jordan Miller 22 10 2 2
Brook Lopez S 35 10 9 2
John Collins S 29 8 3 0
Nicolas Batum 20 6 6 1
Kris Dunn 32 4 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall S 37 28 2 4
P.J. Washington S 41 21 6 0
Cooper Flagg S 41 18 10 8
Marvin Bagley III 25 17 7 1
Ryan Nembhard 31 13 5 9
Klay Thompson 27 12 0 2
Khris Middleton 14 8 0 0
Max Christie S 23 7 4 0
Daniel Gafford S 25 7 13 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 13-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
14%
2 John Collins LAC
11%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
5 Max Christie DAL
9%
6 Jordan Miller LAC
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
8 Brook Lopez LAC
7%
9 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
10 Darius Garland LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
16%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 27.2 6.4 4.1
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 22.4 7.2 6.3
3 Darius Garland LAC 21.9 3.0 7.4
4 John Collins LAC 15.4 6.6 2.1
5 Naji Marshall DAL 14.7 4.1 4.2
6 P.J. Washington DAL 14.2 6.3 2.1
7 Daniel Gafford DAL 14.0 8.4 1.6
8 Jordan Miller LAC 12.2 3.6 3.2
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.1 4.5 2.0
10 Khris Middleton DAL 12.1 3.7 2.3
11 Max Christie DAL 10.8 2.8 1.8
12 Klay Thompson DAL 10.8 2.1 1.5
13 Brook Lopez LAC 10.6 4.1 1.9
14 Isaiah Jackson LAC 8.8 6.8 1.5
15 Marvin Bagley III DAL 8.6 6.5 1.4
16 Kris Dunn LAC 7.9 4.2 3.6
17 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 6.6 2.4 1.9
18 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.6 2.1 1.6
19 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.5 2.1 4.6
20 Caleb Martin DAL 5.2 2.3 0.9
21 Dwight Powell DAL 4.0 3.5 1.0
22 AJ Johnson DAL 4.0 1.6 1.2
23 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.3 1.6 0.9
24 Cam Christie LAC 2.7 1.7 0.8
25 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.5 0.9 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.