NBA games

IND @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
119–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND29243234119
SA42243434134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home SA
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 28 25 1 7
Jarace Walker S 35 21 4 4
Pascal Siakam S 29 14 2 5
Obi Toppin 19 11 4 4
Ben Sheppard 21 9 3 1
Micah Potter 20 9 2 2
Kobe Brown 13 9 0 1
Jay Huff 18 6 2 4
Quenton Jackson S 16 6 4 2
Aaron Nesmith S 25 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dylan Harper S 28 24 4 3
Keldon Johnson 25 24 4 4
Victor Wembanyama S 26 20 8 6
De'Aaron Fox S 26 14 3 7
Harrison Barnes S 23 12 4 1
Julian Champagnie S 27 10 7 2
Luke Kornet 22 9 8 4
Jordan McLaughlin 18 6 0 3
Lindy Waters III 17 6 1 2
Carter Bryant 21 5 9 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Harrison Barnes · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:26 Q1
"Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot running jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Jarace Walker IND
10%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
9 T.J. McConnell IND
9%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
31%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.2 11.2 3.5
2 De'Aaron Fox SA 22.9 4.6 6.7
3 Pascal Siakam IND 20.6 4.6 3.0
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 17.1 2.7 5.8
5 Jarace Walker IND 14.8 6.0 3.5
6 Devin Vassell SA 13.9 3.9 3.0
7 Dylan Harper SA 13.2 3.7 4.9
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.3 3.3 1.6
9 Julian Champagnie SA 11.9 5.3 1.9
10 Jay Huff IND 11.9 4.3 1.4
11 Keldon Johnson SA 10.8 4.6 1.3
12 Micah Potter IND 8.8 4.0 0.9
13 Harrison Barnes SA 8.4 2.6 1.7
14 Kobe Brown IND 8.4 3.5 1.3
15 Quenton Jackson IND 7.9 2.3 2.8
16 T.J. McConnell IND 7.9 2.6 5.3
17 Carter Bryant SA 6.8 3.7 1.2
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.5 2.4 1.5
19 Kam Jones IND 6.2 1.9 3.5
20 Obi Toppin IND 5.6 2.9 1.1
21 Luke Kornet SA 4.9 4.1 1.3
22 Lindy Waters III SA 3.4 1.0 0.8
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.3 1.3 1.2
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.2 1.9 1.0
25 Mason Plumlee SA 2.6 3.0 1.1
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.3 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.