NBA games

MIA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
122–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29343326122
HOU32322336123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home HOU
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 45 32 21 4
Tyler Herro S 39 25 6 4
Simone Fontecchio S 38 21 3 3
Pelle Larsson S 31 19 5 3
Davion Mitchell S 37 15 1 9
Myron Gardner 20 8 2 3
Dru Smith 7 2 0 2
Nikola Jovic 4 0 1 0
Kasparas Jakucionis 15 0 1 3
Kel'el Ware 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 27 3 3
Amen Thompson S 38 24 18 4
Reed Sheppard S 37 23 2 14
Alperen Sengun S 33 19 12 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 40 13 4 4
Aaron Holiday 13 8 0 2
Tari Eason 20 7 3 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 14 1 1 3
Josh Okogie 3 1 0 0
Jae'Sean Tate 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes 3-foot layup (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
5 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
6 Pelle Larsson MIA
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
19%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 27.4 9.6 3.3
2 Kevin Durant HOU 24.1 6.2 4.3
3 Amen Thompson HOU 22.7 8.5 5.4
4 Tyler Herro MIA 22.3 4.9 5.3
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.7 7.9 5.5
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 17.3 4.3 4.4
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.4 5.6 2.4
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.3 4.2 5.4
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.8 5.4 2.3
10 Norman Powell MIA 15.0 3.4 2.3
11 Pelle Larsson MIA 14.6 3.3 3.6
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.7 9.1 1.2
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.6 3.1 4.4
14 Tari Eason HOU 8.7 6.4 1.6
15 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 7.8 2.8 2.1
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.9 2.0 1.0
17 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.6 3.0 1.5
18 Clint Capela HOU 5.4 5.6 1.2
19 Dru Smith MIA 5.4 2.8 2.0
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.5 1.0
21 Josh Okogie HOU 4.2 2.1 0.9
22 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.0 1.5 0.4
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.6 1.5 0.7
24 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.2 1.6 0.6
25 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.9 1.6 0.7
26 Myron Gardner MIA 2.7 2.6 0.7
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.