NBA games

GS @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
110–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS36252029110
ATL35283924126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home ATL
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Anthony Melton S 22 20 2 4
Nate Williams 29 19 4 2
Pat Spencer 26 18 0 3
Draymond Green S 26 13 6 4
LJ Cryer 19 12 2 0
Will Richard 31 9 5 1
Quinten Post S 14 8 3 1
Brandin Podziemski S 24 5 0 1
Gui Santos S 24 2 2 6
Omer Yurtseven 15 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dyson Daniels S 32 28 7 6
CJ McCollum S 29 23 3 5
Zaccharie Risacher 23 17 2 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 27 17 2 1
Mouhamed Gueye S 26 16 10 2
Corey Kispert 18 8 3 4
Jock Landale 19 7 1 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 26 6 5 5
Jonathan Kuminga 22 2 4 2
Gabe Vincent 13 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum ATL
12%
2 De'Anthony Melton GS
12%
3 Gui Santos GS
11%
4 Brandin Podziemski GS
11%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
8 Moses Moody GS
9%
9 Kristaps Porzingis GS
8%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
34%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.7 3.7 4.2
2 CJ McCollum ATL 19.9 4.2 4.7
3 Brandin Podziemski GS 18.7 5.8 4.3
4 De'Anthony Melton GS 17.4 4.2 2.8
5 Gui Santos GS 17.1 6.2 4.5
6 Moses Moody GS 13.7 3.4 2.2
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.7 8.0 3.1
8 Gary Payton II GS 13.1 5.4 2.5
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.7 7.3 5.0
10 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 12.6 6.2 2.5
11 Kristaps Porzingis GS 11.9 4.1 1.9
12 Draymond Green GS 10.2 4.7 5.7
13 Pat Spencer GS 9.3 2.6 3.0
14 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.5 5.3 1.3
15 Corey Kispert ATL 8.4 2.6 1.4
16 Quinten Post GS 8.2 5.2 1.7
17 Will Richard GS 7.7 2.8 1.5
18 Buddy Hield ATL 7.1 2.0 1.5
19 Jock Landale ATL 7.0 2.8 1.7
20 LJ Cryer GS 5.8 1.6 0.8
21 Nate Williams GS 4.6 1.4 0.8
22 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.3 1.5 1.2
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.9 3.6 0.5
24 Omer Yurtseven GS 3.5 2.7 0.8
25 Malevy Leons GS 3.1 1.9 0.7
26 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.7 1.2 0.6
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.5 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.