NBA games

CLE @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
111–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE34192335111
NO28283218106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home NO
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 39 27 7 3
James Harden S 36 20 6 10
Evan Mobley S 30 18 8 3
Sam Merrill S 32 15 10 2
Thomas Bryant 15 11 8 1
Keon Ellis 23 7 2 1
Dean Wade S 23 7 5 3
Max Strus 24 5 8 2
Dennis Schroder 13 1 1 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 32 25 6 4
Saddiq Bey S 36 19 5 4
Herbert Jones S 31 12 3 3
Dejounte Murray S 30 12 3 9
Trey Murphy III S 41 10 6 0
Derik Queen 15 9 3 4
Jeremiah Fears 18 7 3 3
Yves Missi 24 6 10 3
Karlo Matkovic 12 6 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sam Merrill · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
15%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
4 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
5 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
6 Evan Mobley CLE
7%
7 Yves Missi NO
7%
8 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
9 James Harden CLE
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
14%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.7 4.6 5.9
2 James Harden CLE 23.5 5.3 7.1
3 Dejounte Murray NO 21.9 5.7 6.5
4 Evan Mobley CLE 21.6 10.7 2.6
5 Trey Murphy III NO 21.4 5.3 4.9
6 Zion Williamson NO 18.5 5.5 2.7
7 Saddiq Bey NO 17.9 5.3 2.8
8 Jeremiah Fears NO 13.0 3.0 3.5
9 Sam Merrill CLE 11.3 2.9 2.4
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.2 3.7 2.4
11 Keon Ellis CLE 10.1 3.7 1.6
12 Max Strus CLE 9.7 6.0 1.8
13 Jordan Poole NO 8.9 3.0 2.5
14 Derik Queen NO 8.7 4.3 2.5
15 Dennis Schroder CLE 8.5 2.5 4.3
16 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.5 3.6 0.7
17 Karlo Matkovic NO 7.0 5.4 1.4
18 Dean Wade CLE 6.4 4.3 1.4
19 Yves Missi NO 6.3 6.6 1.3
20 Kevon Looney NO 4.2 6.0 1.2
21 DeAndre Jordan NO 3.8 5.5 0.6
22 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.4 1.6 0.5
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.5 1.8 0.5
24 Riley Minix CLE 2.4 1.1 0.8
25 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.2 0.9 0.5
26 Micah Peavy NO 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.