NBA games

LAL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
105–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL37252023105
ORL30352217104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home ORL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 33 5 8
Austin Reaves S 40 26 7 5
Luke Kennard 20 13 3 0
LeBron James S 34 12 6 4
Deandre Ayton S 29 9 12 1
Jaxson Hayes 19 8 7 0
Rui Hachimura 15 2 1 0
Marcus Smart S 31 2 1 1
Jake LaRavia 14 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 16 5 6
Jalen Suggs S 34 14 3 6
Jevon Carter 21 13 2 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 13 9 2
Tristan da Silva S 21 12 2 0
Desmond Bane S 38 12 4 5
Jamal Cain 23 10 5 1
Goga Bitadze 18 9 7 5
Jett Howard 7 3 2 1
Noah Penda 13 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes alley oop dunk (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
7 LeBron James LAL
8%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
16%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.2 8.5 5.8
2 Luka Doncic LAL 26.0 8.5 8.2
3 Desmond Bane ORL 23.3 4.2 4.7
4 LeBron James LAL 22.6 6.5 6.4
5 Austin Reaves LAL 22.1 4.7 5.9
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.2 4.1 5.5
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.9 6.7 2.2
8 Tristan da Silva ORL 12.9 4.9 2.4
9 Marcus Smart LAL 10.7 2.7 3.0
10 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.7 7.2 1.1
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.9 2.9 1.1
12 Jevon Carter ORL 8.6 2.5 2.6
13 Jett Howard ORL 7.2 2.7 1.2
14 Luke Kennard LAL 6.7 2.2 1.4
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.0 4.1 0.9
16 Moritz Wagner ORL 5.6 3.6 1.0
17 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.4 3.0 1.5
18 Noah Penda ORL 5.0 3.1 1.4
19 Jamal Cain ORL 4.5 1.6 0.8
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.4 3.2 0.9
21 Jase Richardson ORL 3.4 1.2 0.9
22 Drew Timme LAL 2.7 1.1 0.5
23 Bronny James LAL 2.4 0.6 0.8
24 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 1.9 2.1 0.5
25 Dalton Knecht LAL 1.7 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.