NBA games

MEM @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
101–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26212826101
CHA30293827124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home CHA
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 24 19 3 1
Javon Small S 29 17 7 3
Taylor Hendricks 25 14 2 3
Walter Clayton Jr. S 22 11 4 2
Tyler Burton 29 10 4 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 27 10 7 1
Jaylen Wells S 25 9 0 1
Taj Gibson 12 7 3 0
DeJon Jarreau 22 4 3 4
Cam Spencer 26 0 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 29 29 3 4
Brandon Miller S 30 22 5 3
Miles Bridges S 27 13 4 1
Coby White 19 12 8 7
Moussa Diabate S 33 11 14 3
Ryan Kalkbrenner 15 10 2 0
Kon Knueppel S 21 9 3 5
Sion James 21 8 1 2
Grant Williams 19 5 4 0
Josh Green 20 5 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
15%
2 GG Jackson MEM
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
5 Ty Jerome MEM
9%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
7 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
8%
8 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
9 Taylor Hendricks MEM
7%
10 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
6%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.1 5.2 6.6
2 Brandon Miller CHA 20.9 6.5 4.4
3 Ty Jerome MEM 19.2 3.5 5.7
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.5 4.7 3.1
5 GG Jackson MEM 16.7 6.1 2.1
6 Coby White CHA 16.5 3.3 3.8
7 Miles Bridges CHA 16.1 5.2 3.1
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.8 3.0 1.4
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 12.3 4.3 1.6
10 Taylor Hendricks MEM 12.1 5.0 1.6
11 Javon Small MEM 12.0 4.1 3.9
12 Cam Spencer MEM 10.7 2.8 4.2
13 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 9.4 2.2 5.6
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.5 9.3 2.7
15 DeJon Jarreau MEM 7.8 5.4 3.5
16 Grant Williams CHA 7.2 3.3 1.9
17 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.9 5.2 1.0
18 Sion James CHA 6.2 3.4 1.8
19 Tyler Burton MEM 6.2 3.5 0.9
20 Josh Green CHA 5.5 2.3 1.1
21 Pat Connaughton CHA 4.0 1.8 0.7
22 Tre Mann CHA 3.8 1.6 1.2
23 Taj Gibson MEM 3.1 2.7 0.5
24 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.6 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.