NBA games

OKC @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
132–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC32373429132
WSH32323215111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home WSH
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 32 40 3 7
Jared McCain 28 18 3 1
Chet Holmgren S 27 18 10 0
Ajay Mitchell S 15 14 1 3
Kenrich Williams 14 11 3 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 9 20 10
Isaiah Joe 31 9 4 2
Aaron Wiggins 21 5 2 0
Cason Wallace S 15 4 2 3
Alex Caruso 20 4 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 34 21 4 4
Bub Carrington S 33 19 3 3
Alex Sarr S 22 14 5 8
Anthony Gill 26 13 5 1
Jamir Watkins 26 13 5 3
Jaden Hardy 19 10 1 2
Will Riley S 28 9 1 4
Tristan Vukcevic 20 6 7 0
Justin Champagnie S 14 3 1 1
Sharife Cooper 19 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Alex Sarr makes 15-foot jumper (Will Riley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
2 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
3 Trae Young WSH
9%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC
8%
6 Will Riley WSH
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
7%
8 Alex Sarr WSH
7%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
9%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.7 5.2 8.4
2 Trae Young WSH 20.1 2.7 7.9
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.2 11.0 2.4
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16.6 4.4 4.2
5 Will Riley WSH 15.3 3.7 2.3
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 14.5 4.7 2.8
7 Alex Sarr WSH 12.4 7.3 2.0
8 Bub Carrington WSH 12.2 3.6 3.8
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.4 3.6 1.7
10 Jaylin Williams OKC 11.3 7.0 2.9
11 Tre Johnson WSH 11.2 3.3 1.9
12 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.7 4.6 1.6
13 Jaden Hardy WSH 10.5 2.4 1.5
14 Jared McCain OKC 10.2 2.3 1.3
15 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.0 4.9 1.4
16 Cason Wallace OKC 9.0 3.8 3.5
17 Jamir Watkins WSH 8.8 3.6 1.8
18 Alex Caruso OKC 7.5 3.5 1.8
19 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 7.5 7.8 3.9
20 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.2 3.2 1.4
21 Sharife Cooper WSH 7.1 2.2 2.3
22 Anthony Gill WSH 6.7 3.8 1.7
23 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.0 2.5 1.2
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 3.5 2.1 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.