NBA games

TOR @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
115–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR30234121115
DEN27302836121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DEN
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jakob Poeltl S 35 23 11 2
Brandon Ingram S 36 19 5 2
RJ Barrett S 34 18 5 2
Scottie Barnes S 38 15 8 8
Immanuel Quickley S 34 15 4 8
Ja'Kobe Walter 23 14 2 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 14 4 2 2
Jamal Shead 21 4 2 5
Jamison Battle 6 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 40 31 5 6
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 23 4 0
Nikola Jokic S 37 22 8 9
Aaron Gordon S 29 16 5 3
Bruce Brown 21 12 3 0
Christian Braun S 33 11 4 2
Cameron Johnson S 31 6 5 2
Tyus Jones 3 0 1 0
Spencer Jones 18 0 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Christian Braun DEN
11%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
6 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
9 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
20%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.0 12.3 10.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.9 4.4 6.2
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.3 5.0 4.2
4 RJ Barrett TOR 23.1 5.8 3.0
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.0 5.4 3.9
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.1 3.3 6.5
7 Christian Braun DEN 15.3 5.5 3.0
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.1 5.7 3.4
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.9 8.9 2.3
10 Cameron Johnson DEN 12.1 4.0 2.4
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.8 2.8 1.8
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.6 4.1 1.7
13 Bruce Brown DEN 7.5 3.0 1.8
14 Jamal Shead TOR 6.3 1.9 3.4
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.3 2.6 1.3
16 Spencer Jones DEN 6.0 3.6 0.9
17 Julian Strawther DEN 5.7 1.6 0.9
18 Gradey Dick TOR 4.9 1.7 0.9
19 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 4.8 3.5 0.8
20 Tyus Jones DEN 4.2 1.3 2.0
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.3 0.8
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.6 1.6 0.8
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.8 2.4 0.7
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.8 2.4 0.7
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.6 1.0 0.7
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.6 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.