NBA games

POR @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
108–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR33351921108
MIN28312718104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIN
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 32 26 5 1
Deni Avdija S 36 25 8 5
Donovan Clingan S 31 21 12 4
Jrue Holiday S 32 12 2 12
Scoot Henderson 24 11 3 2
Toumani Camara S 34 6 3 0
Matisse Thybulle 16 5 3 0
Robert Williams III 17 2 12 0
Kris Murray 16 0 2 0
Sidy Cissoko 2 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 37 19 5 4
Rudy Gobert S 38 18 15 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 38 17 10 8
Bones Hyland 22 17 0 0
Jaden McDaniels S 40 16 6 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 35 13 4 2
Kyle Anderson 18 4 2 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 11 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Donovan Clingan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
13%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
5 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
9%
6 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
9%
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
8 Jerami Grant POR
8%
9 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
32%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.9 4.3 3.3
2 Julius Randle MIN 20.8 7.2 4.5
3 Jrue Holiday POR 19.5 4.5 6.2
4 Jerami Grant POR 18.0 3.7 2.5
5 Deni Avdija POR 17.6 5.1 6.0
6 Donovan Clingan POR 15.1 10.5 2.7
7 Scoot Henderson POR 14.8 3.1 3.7
8 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 14.0 4.1 3.0
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.6 3.7 2.6
10 Toumani Camara POR 12.1 4.7 2.5
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.1 10.7 2.0
12 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.7 3.8 3.1
13 Bones Hyland MIN 9.6 1.9 2.2
14 Robert Williams III POR 8.0 8.4 1.0
15 Kris Murray POR 6.2 3.3 1.2
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.6 3.4 2.2
17 Vit Krejci POR 5.6 3.0 1.4
18 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.6 1.9 1.3
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.6 2.0 1.1
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.2 1.4 0.6
21 Zyon Pullin MIN 4.1 1.4 2.3
22 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.8 1.3 0.8
23 Blake Wesley POR 3.7 1.0 1.2
24 Mike Conley MIN 3.6 1.9 2.0
25 Joan Beringer MIN 3.0 2.3 0.5
26 Julian Phillips MIN 2.7 0.9 0.4
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.6 1.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.