NBA games

BOS @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
117–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29262933117
MEM27273424112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MEM
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 38 30 6 6
Luka Garza 27 22 7 1
Payton Pritchard 32 19 6 3
Derrick White S 36 14 5 3
Jayson Tatum S 31 13 9 0
Neemias Queta S 18 12 11 1
Hugo Gonzalez 15 5 5 1
Baylor Scheierman 23 2 4 3
Sam Hauser S 21 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Burton 32 23 5 2
Ty Jerome S 25 16 1 7
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 31 14 7 2
DeJon Jarreau 27 13 6 2
Javon Small S 26 13 5 2
Taylor Hendricks S 29 12 5 2
Cam Spencer 23 11 3 5
Jaylen Wells S 20 6 0 0
Walter Clayton Jr. 27 4 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Sam Hauser BOS
19%
2 GG Jackson MEM
12%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
5 Ty Jerome MEM
10%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
7 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
9%
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
7%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
61%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
21%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 28.0 6.9 7.3
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.8 8.4 4.7
3 Derrick White BOS 20.0 4.8 5.7
4 Ty Jerome MEM 19.4 3.5 5.4
5 GG Jackson MEM 16.6 6.1 2.2
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.6 3.7 5.4
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.2 3.3 1.6
8 Javon Small MEM 12.5 4.1 4.4
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 12.3 4.0 1.7
10 Taylor Hendricks MEM 12.2 5.0 1.8
11 Cam Spencer MEM 11.8 2.8 4.2
12 Neemias Queta BOS 11.0 8.8 1.7
13 Baylor Scheierman BOS 10.2 5.6 2.5
14 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 9.7 2.1 5.7
15 Sam Hauser BOS 9.4 4.2 1.5
16 Luka Garza BOS 8.0 3.5 1.2
17 DeJon Jarreau MEM 6.7 5.0 4.0
18 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.5 4.1 0.9
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 5.0 1.9 0.9
20 Tyler Burton MEM 4.9 3.4 0.8
21 Charles Bassey BOS 4.2 6.0 0.6
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.3 2.3 0.5
23 Taj Gibson MEM 3.2 2.8 0.6
24 Max Shulga BOS 2.5 1.2 0.7
25 Amari Williams BOS 2.0 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.