NBA games

ATL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
95–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL2727221995
HOU35273916117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home HOU
88% 12%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 27 21 4 4
CJ McCollum S 25 17 2 2
Zaccharie Risacher 19 16 6 2
Jalen Johnson S 32 14 5 3
Jock Landale 20 6 1 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 24 6 8 3
Gabe Vincent 17 6 3 1
Dyson Daniels S 25 3 3 1
Caleb Houstan 3 2 1 0
Corey Kispert 18 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 30 25 3 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 23 9 2
Alperen Sengun S 32 15 9 10
Amen Thompson S 34 14 7 4
Reed Sheppard S 25 14 4 4
Tari Eason 25 10 10 2
Aaron Holiday 16 9 1 2
Clint Capela 14 3 5 2
Josh Okogie 19 2 3 0
Isaiah Crawford 6 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes 12-foot turnaround jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 CJ McCollum ATL
11%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
9 Tari Eason HOU
8%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
22%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 25.1 6.2 4.3
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.1 8.6 7.7
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.0 8.0 5.3
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 22.6 3.3 4.1
5 Amen Thompson HOU 22.6 8.7 5.3
6 CJ McCollum ATL 19.3 3.8 4.6
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 16.6 4.1 4.5
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.6 5.5 2.1
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.0 7.6 3.2
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.7 7.5 5.7
11 Corey Kispert ATL 8.7 2.5 1.4
12 Tari Eason HOU 8.4 6.2 1.8
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.1 5.3 1.3
14 Buddy Hield ATL 8.0 2.3 1.6
15 Jock Landale ATL 6.8 2.6 1.5
16 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.5 2.9 1.4
17 Clint Capela HOU 5.4 5.2 1.0
18 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.6 1.3 1.1
19 Josh Okogie HOU 3.7 1.7 0.8
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 2.8 2.8 0.3
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.8 0.8 0.7
22 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.7 1.1 0.6
23 Christian Koloko ATL 2.7 2.3 0.4
24 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.5 1.2 0.6
25 Jeff Green HOU 2.2 0.8 0.3
26 Isaiah Crawford HOU 1.3 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.