NBA games

GS @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
101–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS26242328101
DET21363028115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DET
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 30 15 6 3
Gary Payton II 25 14 3 3
De'Anthony Melton S 23 14 4 0
Gui Santos S 30 13 5 5
Will Richard 28 11 1 0
LJ Cryer 16 10 0 1
Omer Yurtseven 21 8 6 2
Pat Spencer 23 6 4 2
Malevy Leons 11 5 1 1
Kristaps Porzingis S 11 5 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 21 23 6 1
Daniss Jenkins S 38 22 7 8
Paul Reed 23 15 6 3
Tobias Harris S 25 13 6 5
Duncan Robinson S 29 11 1 2
Ronald Holland II 22 11 1 0
Ausar Thompson S 25 8 3 4
Caris LeVert 21 5 2 5
Javonte Green 20 5 3 0
Tolu Smith 4 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Anthony Melton · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 De'Anthony Melton GS
11%
3 Kristaps Porzingis GS
10%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Gui Santos GS
10%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
10%
8 Moses Moody GS
7%
9 Daniss Jenkins DET
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
12%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Duren DET 23.0 11.5 2.0
2 De'Anthony Melton GS 18.0 4.0 3.0
3 Brandin Podziemski GS 17.8 5.8 4.5
4 Gui Santos GS 17.8 5.9 4.2
5 Moses Moody GS 14.1 3.4 2.3
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.0 5.3 2.1
7 Kristaps Porzingis GS 13.6 4.0 2.2
8 Gary Payton II GS 12.0 5.4 2.4
9 Duncan Robinson DET 11.1 3.2 2.6
10 Ausar Thompson DET 10.2 6.1 3.8
11 Draymond Green GS 10.1 4.5 5.6
12 Pat Spencer GS 9.4 2.4 3.3
13 Ronald Holland II DET 8.9 3.7 1.1
14 Quinten Post GS 8.5 5.2 1.8
15 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.0 2.6 3.9
16 Will Richard GS 8.0 3.1 1.7
17 Kevin Huerter DET 7.3 3.4 2.1
18 Javonte Green DET 7.3 2.5 0.9
19 Caris LeVert DET 6.8 2.7 2.4
20 Paul Reed DET 6.1 4.6 0.8
21 LJ Cryer GS 4.4 1.5 0.6
22 Tolu Smith DET 4.3 4.3 0.8
23 Chaz Lanier DET 3.2 1.4 0.7
24 Malevy Leons GS 3.1 1.9 0.6
25 Omer Yurtseven GS 2.8 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.