NBA games

PHI @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
139–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI45263632139
SAC33292729118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home SAC
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
VJ Edgecombe S 39 38 7 11
Justin Edwards S 33 32 0 4
Quentin Grimes S 32 27 5 7
Andre Drummond 24 13 11 4
Dominick Barlow S 34 12 8 2
Adem Bona S 20 8 10 0
MarJon Beauchamp 16 4 2 2
Cameron Payne 13 3 3 0
Trendon Watford 10 2 2 2
Jabari Walker 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Maxime Raynaud S 36 30 4 2
Daeqwon Plowden S 31 20 2 1
DeMar DeRozan S 23 13 3 5
Precious Achiuwa S 34 12 7 0
Russell Westbrook S 27 11 3 8
Doug McDermott 31 11 3 0
Dylan Cardwell 21 9 13 3
Killian Hayes 21 8 5 2
Malik Monk 16 4 1 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daeqwon Plowden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Daeqwon Plowden makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Maxime Raynaud assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Precious Achiuwa SAC
11%
4 Quentin Grimes PHI
10%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
7 Nique Clifford SAC
8%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
10 Adem Bona PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
26%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.9 3.6 5.6
2 Maxime Raynaud SAC 19.6 9.8 2.4
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 19.4 6.2 3.6
4 Quentin Grimes PHI 19.1 4.3 3.1
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.6 4.9 7.6
6 Precious Achiuwa SAC 18.4 10.2 2.3
7 Nique Clifford SAC 14.6 6.0 4.9
8 Malik Monk SAC 12.1 2.1 3.1
9 Keegan Murray SAC 12.0 3.7 1.7
10 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 10.8 3.4 1.5
11 Devin Carter SAC 10.1 3.4 3.0
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.9 4.7 1.5
13 Justin Edwards PHI 9.2 2.9 2.2
14 Cameron Payne PHI 9.0 2.6 2.8
15 Trendon Watford PHI 8.7 3.9 2.6
16 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 7.9 2.9 1.4
17 Dylan Cardwell SAC 7.4 9.2 1.6
18 Killian Hayes SAC 6.9 2.7 3.7
19 Jabari Walker PHI 6.5 2.8 0.6
20 Adem Bona PHI 6.3 5.7 1.2
21 Andre Drummond PHI 6.2 7.2 1.8
22 Dalen Terry PHI 5.2 2.2 1.7
23 Doug McDermott SAC 5.2 1.6 0.9
24 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.6 1.3 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.