NBA games

PHX @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
100–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX26332021100
SA24282128101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home SA
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Gillespie S 34 24 2 6
Devin Booker S 34 22 0 5
Jalen Green S 34 17 8 4
Oso Ighodaro S 34 15 7 7
Rasheer Fleming 20 8 5 0
Ryan Dunn 20 5 8 1
Jordan Goodwin S 35 5 8 0
Khaman Maluach 14 4 5 1
Jamaree Bouyea 9 0 3 1
Amir Coffey 6 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 35 34 12 1
De'Aaron Fox S 33 23 7 3
Julian Champagnie S 34 14 2 2
Devin Vassell S 33 12 2 2
Keldon Johnson 20 6 4 1
Harrison Barnes S 23 6 1 3
Dylan Harper 26 5 6 5
Luke Kornet 15 1 4 0
Jordan McLaughlin 10 0 2 5
Carter Bryant 10 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 16-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green PHX
17%
2 Devin Booker PHX
16%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
16%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
6 Devin Vassell SA
8%
7 Collin Gillespie PHX
8%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Rasheer Fleming PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
25%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.9 10.7 3.5
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.5 4.5 4.9
3 Jalen Green PHX 21.7 4.2 3.4
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.1 4.1 6.5
5 Devin Vassell SA 14.0 3.9 2.8
6 Dylan Harper SA 13.6 3.6 4.5
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 11.2 4.1 4.7
8 Julian Champagnie SA 10.3 5.3 1.6
9 Keldon Johnson SA 9.8 4.4 1.1
10 Oso Ighodaro PHX 9.8 6.5 3.0
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.4 3.7 1.7
12 Harrison Barnes SA 8.0 2.8 1.6
13 Carter Bryant SA 6.6 3.6 1.0
14 Rasheer Fleming PHX 6.2 3.7 0.8
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.5 3.4 1.1
16 Luke Kornet SA 5.0 4.3 1.2
17 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.3 1.8 1.6
18 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.3 3.3 0.6
19 Amir Coffey PHX 4.1 1.8 0.8
20 Lindy Waters III SA 3.7 1.3 0.7
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.5 2.0 0.9
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.1 1.2 0.8
23 Mason Plumlee SA 3.0 3.0 1.2
24 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.4 1.3 0.6
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.4 1.6 0.5
26 Koby Brea PHX 2.1 0.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.