NBA games

LAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
99105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2626321599
NO28273218105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home NO
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick Jones Jr. S 34 22 4 3
John Collins S 28 18 8 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 16 1 1
Isaiah Jackson 19 13 6 1
Jordan Miller S 37 11 8 5
Kris Dunn S 34 8 7 3
Brook Lopez S 29 6 3 2
Kobe Sanders 20 5 0 2
Cam Christie 12 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 35 27 5 2
Saddiq Bey S 36 20 6 6
Zion Williamson S 33 15 5 2
Yves Missi S 27 11 11 4
Herbert Jones S 30 11 3 2
Jeremiah Fears 24 8 0 2
Derik Queen 16 5 5 0
Jordan Poole 17 5 0 3
Karlo Matkovic 23 3 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
24%
2 John Collins LAC
15%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
15%
4 Herbert Jones NO
13%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
10%
7 Brook Lopez LAC
10%
8 Jeremiah Fears NO
0%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
0%
10 Jordan Miller LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
23%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 21.8 5.5 5.3
2 Zion Williamson NO 19.3 5.6 2.9
3 Saddiq Bey NO 18.6 5.3 2.9
4 John Collins LAC 15.0 6.6 1.8
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 14.4 3.8 3.9
6 Jordan Miller LAC 12.0 3.5 2.6
7 Herbert Jones NO 10.9 4.1 3.0
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.6 4.3 1.6
9 Brook Lopez LAC 10.2 4.0 1.7
10 Jordan Poole NO 9.1 3.1 2.4
11 Derik Queen NO 9.0 4.7 2.8
12 Kris Dunn LAC 7.8 4.1 3.7
13 Karlo Matkovic NO 7.7 5.4 1.4
14 Isaiah Jackson LAC 7.5 5.4 1.2
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.8 2.1 1.4
16 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 6.0 2.3 1.8
17 Yves Missi NO 5.7 5.8 1.1
18 Kevon Looney NO 4.3 6.0 1.2
19 DeAndre Jordan NO 4.0 5.6 0.6
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 1.8 1.1
21 Cam Christie LAC 2.8 1.5 0.6
22 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.6 1.2 0.7
23 Norchad Omier LAC 2.5 1.6 0.3
24 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.2 0.8 1.2
25 Micah Peavy NO 2.0 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.